Recent Key Events Attracting Market Attention

Lately, discussions around Ethereum have mainly focused on the following areas, involving both macroeconomic developments and the impact of specific technical upgrades.
· New Narrative about Wall Street and Regulation
· Main perspective: Some analysts believe that capital networks between Wall Street and Washington are forming a new chain: American political and economic elites → US national debt → stablecoins/crypto wallets → Ethereum + RWA (real-world assets) + L2. Recent statements by the SEC chairman about the possibility of migrating the entire US financial market to blockchain in the coming years reinforce this expectation.
· Impact analysis: This is seen as a powerful structural bullish narrative, where assets from the traditional financial system (for example, US national debt) can ultimately be accumulated on Ethereum and its Layer 2 levels through tokenization, creating significant value support.
· Fusaka Update and Deflation Expectations
· Main changes: The recent Fusaka upgrade on Ethereum aims to address the issue where L2 develops, but L1 does not sufficiently capture value. The upgrade includes a mechanism that requires L2 activity to pay minimal data fees, part of which is burned.
· Key indicators: After the upgrade, Blob fees became the largest contributor to ETH burning, accounting for up to 98%, with daily burns exceeding 1500 ETH. If L2 activity continues to grow, ETH could revert to a deflationary state.
· Market Structure and Technical Signals
· Position changes: Market data show that ETH on exchanges is at a historic low, around 10% of total, indicating limited potential selling pressure.
· Capital sentiment: After the market decline, the level of speculative leverage in the crypto sector dropped to historically low levels (for example, 4%), indicating full panic unwinding. Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC price has remained in a sideways range since November, and the previously successful "long BTC/short ETH" strategy has lost effectiveness.
· Main Logic: The current active growth of Ethereum’s Layer 2 (L2) and its impact on the main chain remain unclear. Despite capital inflows into ETH ETFs, their scale and influence might be limited.
Overall, market sentiment towards Ethereum is complex but predominantly optimistic:
· The main bullish scenario is based on the large narrative of "traditional finance on-chain," technical upgrades that capture value, a deflationary model, and a healthy structure after the unwinding of margin positions.
· Bearish or cautious assessments are related to uncertainty about the actual value growth of L2 and the duration of capital inflows into ETFs. $ETH