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Bitcoin Strategy & Market Analysis | W2 Dec 2025
4-year cycles are dead is the myth of the season. They’re not - they just need to be read via market regimes and capital flows, not the calendar.
This issue: an updated Halving Macro Bull/Bear Phase (macro+micro), a reality check on the consolidation scenario, and the key on-chain tells (CDD, LTH Cash Extraction, Net Capital Flow) to answer one question: are we seeing a top-style unload, or a controlled LTH distribution?
Closing with a practical playbook for next week risk, edge, and the conditions that would confirm a regime change.