Going into this week, we have a lot of major macro events lined up, including a Triple Witching Friday, so here are my thoughts and positioning, aligned with the current market structure on $BTC, $ETH, and alts.

First things first, these are the most important macro events this week:

Monday:
China Housing Data
Canada Inflation Data

Tuesday:
US Labor Market + Housing Data (!)

Wednesday:
Great Britain Inflation Data
US Fed officials speak

Thursday:
Great Britain BOE Decision (!)
Euro Area ECB Decision (!)
US Inflation Data (!)

Friday:
Japan Inflation Data
Japan BOJ Decision (!)

The most important event in my view is the BOJ decision on Friday, which could have a major impact on the Japanese bond market, the yen carry trade, and global markets. I’ll be sharing a thread on this soon, so stay tuned.

On top of that, this is a Triple Witching week, meaning billions in options are expiring on Friday, which always leads to high volatility.

Because of this, my positioning remains neutral. I’m keeping some cash on the side, as mentioned in prior updates, since $BTC, $ETH, and alts have failed to durably reclaim key lost high-timeframe support ranges, a sign of short-term weakness that, if it continues, could lead to a deeper pullback on the mid-term.

Going forward, I think the best approach is to remain somewhat cautious on the low-timeframes until we see clear signs of strength confirming a breakout.

Be ready to hedge part of spot holdings to mitigate short-term downside risk if weakness continues this week, and most importantly, avoid leverage.

I expect a lot of fakeouts, deviations, and volatility to shake out overleveraged traders before a more durable directional move comes.

I’ll be sharing tons of updates, reports, and threads TODAY on stocks, crypto, FX markets, and the key confluences I’ll be tracking this week for members.

If you want access as well, you can join us here:

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