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#加密生态动态追踪 Starting tomorrow, the market may enter a critical point. The Bank of Japan's meeting on December 19 has long been a topic of repeated speculation among market participants — this is not simply a matter of yen depreciation, but actually involves the entire global risk asset ecosystem, making the cryptocurrency sector especially sensitive.
**The magic of arbitrage trading is about to dissipate**
For years, institutional investors have been playing a classic cross-border arbitrage strategy: borrowing yen at near-zero cost, converting to dollars, and then heavily buying volatile assets like Bitcoin to earn the spread. How lucrative is this model? Until the central bank actually intervenes. Once the Bank of Japan raises borrowing costs, the entire logic immediately reverses:
Arbitrage opportunities vanish, and borrowing costs shift from "almost free" to real expenses. Investors have no choice but to start large-scale liquidations — selling Bitcoin, converting to yen, and repaying debts. As the most liquid digital asset, Bitcoin is the first to be sold off.
**The numbers are in front of us**
Over the past year, every move by the Bank of Japan has revealed clues:
After the March rate hike, Bitcoin dropped 23%. Another in July caused a 26% decline. In January, expectations of a rate hike caused Bitcoin to plunge 31%. The pattern is clear, and this time is likely no exception. Analysts are now discussing a dangerous figure — Bitcoin could be pushed down to $70,000 to $72,500. More pessimistic technical signals point to $67,000, with a "bear flag" pattern appearing prominently on the technical chart.
**The storm is still building**
This week’s variables are far from limited. U.S. non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and above-expected numbers could stir market sentiment; Federal Reserve officials' speeches and economic data will continue to reshape market expectations of liquidity; spot market buying enthusiasm is also noticeably waning, with $BTC-related ETFs shifting from net inflows to net outflows. Buyer confidence is fading, as clearly seen from the funding landscape.
$ETH is also under pressure. Once the broader asset class enters a risk-release cycle, Ethereum will find it difficult to remain unaffected.
If it drops below 70,000 tomorrow, should we buy the dip or keep watching the show?
It's non-farm payroll and Federal Reserve speeches again, with too many variables this week. It feels like a shakeout.
No one is buying ETH right now; the net outflow data looks really sad.
It feels like history is about to repeat itself. The declines in March, July, and January are still vivid in my mind.
With such poor liquidity, how can it be possible to stay unaffected?
Arbitrage guys should seriously review their positions. Overconfidence always comes with a debt to pay.
Is 70,000 a support? It feels like 67,000 is the real test. The technical chart shows a truly impressive bear flag.
Non-farm payroll weekend coincides with a central bank meeting. This pace is indeed a bit rushed, but during the risk release period, there's nothing that can truly keep one safe.
ETH is also being dragged down. Buyers are really fleeing.
Is it going to fall again? It seems every time Japan makes a move, the market starts to sell off. Can it hold this time?
That position just above 70,000 feels risky, and that bearish flag on the technical chart looks really nasty.
Non-farm payrolls plus Federal Reserve speeches—this week has so many variables, it feels like something's going to break.
Wait, can ETH escape unscathed? During this risk release period, it seems no one can run away.
The shift in funds towards net outflows is quite obvious; it's a bit alarming.
Tomorrow's opening depends on how well you manage your positions; this week is a test.
This time, it's really time to panic; even ETH can't escape.
The bear flag has appeared, how can we defend the 67,000 level?
Arbitrage players will have to cut their losses this time. Who will be the ones to take over?
Non-farm + Bank of Japan? Double kill warning, be prepared.
Spot ETF is now turning to net outflows; big investors are fleeing.
It feels like a replay of last year's story, with each drop more fierce than the last.
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Is 67,000 really coming? It feels like every time they say it sounds pretty scary, but in the end... I can't be bothered to think about it.
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ETH is following BTC to be buried together, trying to stay safe? Laughable. When risk hits, no one can run away.
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Non-farm payroll data + Federal Reserve speeches, this week's variables are indeed numerous. Stay vigilant with your positions.
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The yen borrowing arbitrage has dissipated. The institutions' dream should wake up now, the sell-off mode has started.
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The resistance level at 70,000 to 72,500 is right here. Do buyers really dare to take the plunge?
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The buyer confidence is clearly waning. ETF net outflows indicate a problem.
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Every time the central bank acts, the drop starts at 20%. This time, it won't be any different.
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The spot market enthusiasm has cooled, liquidity is tight. Starting tomorrow, it all depends on fate.
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Wait, is 67,000 really unholdable? The technicals seem pretty scary.
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Whenever the Bank of Japan intervenes, the crypto market starts a bloodbath. This time, it might be impossible to escape.
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Funding has already shifted, ETH will follow as a sacrificial pawn. This week has been really tough.
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Where are the institutional buy-the-dip calls? Now everyone is closing positions to repay debts. The reversal feels a bit rushed.
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7 to 75,000? Even more crazy is the possibility of breaking through 67,000 directly. The bear flag is unreliable.
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Without arbitrage space, it's a major weapon. The logic is indeed a bit cold and clear.
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If the non-farm payroll data exceeds expectations again, it's all over. This week is like a minefield—step on any landmine and it explodes.
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It's the Bank of Japan again, along with a wave of liquidations. Bitcoin probably has to suffer a big loss this time.
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7 to 75,000? I think even 67,000 looks a bit uncertain. The technical bearish flag pattern really can't hold anymore.
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Funds are net flowing out; when will the buying confidence return? It feels like a big minefield this week.
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ETH will be sacrificed along with BTC. Anyway, major assets are entering risk release, no one can stay unaffected.
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The arbitrage space is gone, borrowing costs are rising. The years of comfort are just gone, it's really uncomfortable.
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Non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations directly added pressure to the market. The Fed's speeches also stirred things up. This week really makes me want to kneel.
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Every time the Bank of Japan acts, Bitcoin gets a beating. This pattern is now very clear.
Again, watching arbitrage traders dump the market, it happens every time.
That $70,000 level... is just too risky.
BTW, with the non-farm payrolls data combined with the central bank meeting this time, I really can't hold back.
I just want to know where this dip will end.