I just reviewed the hourly chart of ZEC, and the MACD indicator's upward movement gives me a chilling feeling—the double lines have completely fallen below the zero axis, and the death cross is still widening. The problem is, the Bank of Japan's decision is coming soon, with rumors of a rate hike to 0.75%, which would be a 30-year high. With these two signals stacking up, the trend from tonight to tomorrow doesn't look very optimistic.

First, let's talk about the macro logic. Many people might ask: what does the Bank of Japan's rate hike have to do with the crypto market? Actually, it’s a lot. Once the Japanese yen enters a sustained rate hike cycle, arbitrage funds worldwide will inevitably flow back into Japan, and market liquidity will tighten. U.S. stocks, Asia-Pacific markets, and high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies will basically become the first targets for sell-offs. This is nothing new; over the past thirty years of rate hike cycles, this script has played out repeatedly, just with varying intensity each time. So, at critical moments, changes in the macro environment often have a greater impact than technical indicators alone.

Now, looking at the technical side. ZEC has clearly entered the confirmed downtrend zone. The combination of being below the zero axis and a death cross indicates that the bears have taken full control, and any rebound should be seen as an opportunity to escape or add to short positions.

Regarding resistance levels: 438 is a short-term lifeline, and 479 is clearly the ceiling. Without any major positive news or volume support, breaking through from here will be very difficult.

As for support levels: the first is 353; if broken, then look to 300. Honestly, the 300 level is not just a technical support but also a psychological threshold. If it really drops to that point, the market sentiment will probably have already collapsed.

In summary, the most likely future trend is: after a weak rebound to around 438, the price will continue to decline. The probability of a direct reversal and sharp rise feels unlikely to exceed 20%.