#大户持仓变化 The time window for the Federal Reserve Chair's departure is approximately six months away. The current issue has shifted from "Will there be a change" to "Who will replace him and when will the pricing be determined."

Treasury Secretary Bessant has already publicly stated that he is unwilling to take on this hot potato, effectively stepping back from the race. The market is now generally optimistic about Haskett taking this position. Why?

First, his stance is particularly clear—publicly supporting cryptocurrencies. In the current political ecosystem, this stance carries significant weight. Second, he has repeatedly stated that "current economic data is sufficient to support continued rate cuts," leaving no room for ambiguity, with a firm attitude. Furthermore, he and Trump are highly aligned on economic policy, truly like two peas in a pod.

The logical deduction is quite straightforward—once Haskett is confirmed to be in the succession plan, the Fed's "hawkish-neutral" pricing framework will be overturned, replaced by expectations of "preemptive easing." This is why the probability of continued rate cuts in the second half of next year is not just gradually increasing but structurally certain.

However, it’s important to clarify a point that is easily misunderstood:

**Rate cuts ≠ unlimited liquidity.**

The massive liquidity infusion, this "big medicine," will be largely used up by around May next year. Subsequent rate cuts are more about "policy confirmation signals" and "market sentiment backing," rather than a new wave of astronomical capital flows.

Breaking it down:
- First half of the year? Liquidity expectations drive the entire pricing logic.
- Second half of the year? Political cycle + policy direction determine valuation trends.

Markets always speculate on expectations, but the real impact comes when policies are implemented. The performance differences of assets like $SOL across different cycles can well illustrate this point.