The future of Dogecoin's price fluctuates between inflation changes and meme-driven sentiment.

The proposal to reduce block rewards could cause a supply shortage, but risks for miners remain.
ETF and regulatory uncertainty – delays are slowing development, but the emergence of a spot ETF could revive institutional investor interest.
Accumulation by large players (whales) – purchases exceeding $200 million( signal bullish expectations, although retail investors remain cautious.

Detailed Analysis

1. Proposal to Reduce Block Rewards )Mixed Effect(

Overview:
In April 2025, a proposal emerged to cut Dogecoin's annual issuance from 5 billion to 500 million DOGE, reducing block rewards by 90% — down to 1,000 DOGE. Supporters believe this will lower inflation )currently around 3.3%( and make DOGE more like a "sound currency." However, critics warn that if DOGE's price does not increase proportionally, miners may abandon mining, threatening network security. The Dogecoin Core team traditionally opposes monetary policy changes, calling such proposals "AI nonsense" without community support.

What it means:
Approval could trigger short-term growth similar to Litecoin's halving in 2015 )+45%(, but long-term success depends on balancing miners' and users' interests. If the proposal fails, DOGE may settle as a "joke coin" without an inflation reduction plan.

2. Hopes for ETF and Regulatory Delays )Bearish Short-Term Outlook(

Overview:
The SEC postponed the crypto market structure bill until 2026, delaying clarity for DOGE. Meanwhile, Grayscale Dogecoin Trust )GDOG( launched with low interest — trading volume on the first day was $1.4 million versus $4.6 billion for Bitcoin ETF. The likelihood of DOGE ETF approval in 2025 has fallen from 70% to 51% according to Polymarket )Finance Magnates$500 .

What it means:
Regulatory uncertainty is holding back institutional investments, leaving DOGE dependent on retail interest. Approval of an ETF in 2026 will be crucial — according to Bitwise, a spot ETF could attract over (million) in the first year, mirroring Bitcoin's success in 2021.

3. Actions of Major Players and Social Sentiment (Bullish Factor$200

Overview:
Whales bought over 1 billion DOGE )~(million) in August 2025 near support levels at $0.14, according to IntoTheBlock data. However, retail activity is declining — the number of active addresses fell 17% in September. Elon Musk's support following Coinbase's move to Texas caused a short-term rally of 8%, but DOGE still lags behind BTC recovery in 2025 (-52% versus -27%).

What it means:
Accumulation by large players often precedes growth (for example, +12,000% in 2021), but DOGE needs a viral catalyst — such as new support from Musk or integration into payment systems — to break the downward trend of 2025.

The future of Dogecoin depends on a skillful balance between limiting issuance (via block rewards) and speculative interest ETF and large players, but regulatory delays and risks for miners limit growth potential. It is important to watch the support level at $0.14 — a break below could lead to a drop to 2024 lows around $0.09, while progress with ETFs or activity from Elon Musk could push the price back into the $0.20–$0.26 range. Will the DOGE community overcome inflationary constraints, or will new meme coins divert attention away?