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The Federal Reserve has reached the end of rate cuts, and labor market data becomes crucial
【CoinPush】At 21:30 tonight Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the November unadjusted CPI annual rate (market expectation 3.1%), initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13, and the core CPI annual rate. These data are important references for the future direction of Federal Reserve policy.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated in a speech on December 11 that the labor market is gradually cooling, and inflation still faces upside risks. He believes that labor demand has significantly slowed, market vitality has weakened, and some signals appear slightly soft.
Goldman Sachs analyst Kay Haigh’s view is more direct — the Fed has reached the end of its preemptive rate cuts. In other words, to see the Fed continue to loosen, the labor market must further deteriorate to justify such a move. This means that the future economic data will determine the Fed’s policy pace in the first half of 2025.