#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 The Big Shift in Federal Reserve Monetary Policy in 2025: From Fighting Inflation to Stabilizing Employment

This year, the Federal Reserve made a major turnaround. It cut interest rates three times, with a total reduction of 75 basis points, and in the December final decision, set the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%. Simply put, it shifted from desperately raising rates and defending against inflation to now considering employment and releasing liquidity. This is not a minor adjustment; it’s a complete paradigm shift in policy.

Why the change? The reasons are quite complex. On one hand, U.S. employment growth is starting to slow down, with the unemployment rate jumping to 4.5%, the highest in the past four years. On the other hand, although inflation has fallen from its peak to 2.9%, it still stubbornly refuses to drop to the Fed’s 2% target, creating an awkward situation of sluggish growth and sticky inflation— the economy isn’t as strong, yet prices are still resistant, requiring balancing both.

What’s interesting about this decision is the significant internal disagreement. For the first time in six years, the December decision saw three dissenting votes. Some believe the rate cuts are not fast enough, while others think they are too fast, reflecting fierce debate within the decision-making body over the pace of rate reductions.

The supporting tools have also been upgraded. Starting in December, the Fed resumed balance sheet expansion, purchasing $40 billion of short-term government bonds each month to supplement bank reserves. Officially, this is described as "technical liquidity management," not quantitative easing 2.0, but in practice, it injects liquidity into the market and alleviates funding pressures. This move effectively stabilized volatility in money market rates and maintained the flow of funds within the financial system.

The impact on global markets is quite broad. Rate cuts have marginally improved global liquidity, benefiting gold, growth stocks, and emerging market assets. The U.S.-China interest rate differential has narrowed, and the renminbi is less likely to depreciate easily. For the crypto market, liquidity easing is generally a positive signal—funds tend to flow more easily into risk assets.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Fed’s dot plot suggests only one more rate cut might occur. The long-term neutral rate remains at a new level of 3.0%. Moving forward, the Fed will continue to follow the principle of "data-dependent," walking a tightrope between protecting employment and controlling inflation. Every policy decision will continue to influence global financial markets.

In summary, 2025 is a turning point—shifting from tight monetary policy to a more accommodative stance, which will have significant impacts on asset pricing and market flows.