Landing of Japan's rate hike does not mean you can confidently buy the dip. This is a common blind spot among many traders.

In the past two days, the most frequently heard statement in discussions has been: "Wait for the announcement of Japan's rate hike, and when it drops, it's an entry opportunity." It sounds reasonable, but if you review the history of previous rate hikes—March 2024, July 2024, and January 2025—you will find an unexpected pattern.

Typically, the day of the rate hike announcement is not a big event. It usually involves a quick dip of 5% to 8%, followed by a rapid rebound, giving the impression that "bad news has been digested." This moment is the easiest to attract initial bottom-fishers. But then, problems start from here.

In the following 2 to 4 weeks, the market enters a repetitive pattern: volatility gradually narrows, the overall center of gravity shifts downward, and rebounds are weak. Prices do not plummet sharply but slowly decline with sideways oscillations, trading volume shrinks, and market sentiment is gradually drained. This is not a confidence-inspiring market; rather, it is designed to test traders' patience.

Structurally, there is a highly similar pattern: first, a quick dip followed by a rebound—a "pin"—which creates an illusion that the "bottom has already appeared"; then, the price repeatedly oscillates around this pin's lowest point, gradually eroding bullish confidence until the last batch of bottom-fishing funds can no longer hold and exit, completing the market adjustment.

From this perspective, Japan's rate hike is more like a **"time-based negative"**—not resolved in a day, but extended over a longer period to be digested. Under this structure, the most vulnerable to heavy losses are not those chasing highs, but rather those rushing to buy the dip without sufficient stamina.

A relatively reliable approach should be: exercise restraint during rebounds, gradually close short positions in a weak market, and avoid rushing from short to long before the trend is fully finished. The market is not short of people willing to jump in; what it lacks is those who can endure and wait for the rhythm to truly play out.

If you want to buy the dip now, ask yourself a honest question: with two consecutive weeks of downward decline, oscillation, and no rebound, can you really hold on? If the answer is no, then don’t rush to place bets. True bottom opportunities never knock only once.