As of December 22, 2025, the U.S. stock market is still fluctuating at high levels. The S&P 500 has risen about 16% this year, but it has softened a bit entering December—this breaks the pattern of previous years' "Christmas rally," indicating that market sentiment has clearly become more cautious.

Recent fluctuations are mainly stuck on two issues. One is the significant valuation pressure in the AI sector, as Oracle's data center project exposes the question of how high the return on AI investments can be, leading the market to raise questions; the other is from the Federal Reserve, where although there was a 25 basis point cut in December, there are still many hawkish voices, which directly pushed up US Treasury yields, creating a negative feedback loop for the stock market.

From the sector perspective, the seven tech giants are still supporting the index, but the differentiation is becoming increasingly obvious. Nvidia has clearly struggled to gain momentum during this period, while Google has rebounded due to the release of the Gemini model. Intel, on the other hand, has been the biggest winner of the year, rebounding over 80% from its lows. With its AI布局 and policy support, it has indeed turned the tables. The Nasdaq 100 ETF has been continuously attracting capital, with funds consistently flowing in, indicating that medium to long-term confidence is still present.

As the New Year approaches, everyone is waiting for the legendary 'Christmas rally'. Historically, the S&P 500 averages a rise of about 1.3% during the last five trading days of the year, but given the current environment, there is significant pressure to lock in profits, and it's hard to say whether the gains can meet expectations. From an operational perspective, it's still important to focus on tech leaders with strong profit certainty, while also keeping an eye on sectors stimulated by the interest rate cut cycle, so as not to be caught off guard by a correction in high valuations.