The week of Christmas is often a watershed moment for the market. The news is lively, but this is also a time when it's easy to fall into pitfalls. There are a few significant events recently worth pondering thoroughly—especially the suspense surrounding the choice of the Fed chairman and the upcoming economic data.

Let's first talk about the Fed chairman. Trump may announce the new chairman nominee during the Christmas period, with the market betting heavily on Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, whose nomination probability is 54%. This guy is a typical dove, advocating for loose policies, and recently stated that inflation has fallen below target, leaving plenty of room for further rate cuts.

At first glance, it's a positive sign. The expectation of interest rate cuts has indeed strengthened, which can stimulate a rebound in risk assets. The problem is that this expectation has already been overhyped. By the time he is officially nominated, the good news may actually become a reason to reduce positions. The market is always like this: buy the expectation and sell the fact. News that seems positive can actually trigger profit-taking. Don't be impulsive and chase high prices just because of the news.

As for the legendary Santa Claus market, historically, the week of Christmas has indeed seen more ups than downs, with calm fluctuations. However, this year is special—the level of uncertainty represented by the Fed Chairman is right in front of us, and there are several key economic data releases this week. The calm Christmas market is likely to be out of the question, and instead, we should be mentally prepared for increased volatility.

So at this stage, my choice is to wait and see. I'll act once these uncertainties are clarified.