During the Christmas period, market risk is low, and the volatility of both the U.S. stock market and the crypto world has significantly contracted, leading to a corresponding shrinkage in trading opportunities. Against this backdrop, there is also a divergence in judgment regarding the subsequent trend.

Behind the changes in market sentiment is the drive of macro data. Yesterday, the U.S. GDP growth rate was announced to be far above expectations, which directly changed the market's predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's policies. The probability of the Federal Reserve implementing recessionary interest rate cuts has significantly decreased, with the latest data showing that the probability of rate cuts has fallen to 17%. This also explains why, even though U.S. stocks closed higher, BTC and ETH did not follow suit—bullish momentum is clearly insufficient.

From a technical perspective, BTC's performance is particularly noteworthy. On the daily chart, BTC formed a false breakout at the EMA20 moving average and then fell back, which is a typical signal of bullish fatigue. More importantly, the double bottom pattern has been established, and the decline driven by the moving averages is approaching the crucial support level of 850. If it breaks below this level, it may further seek a bottom.

The trend of ETH is similar to BTC but with stronger signals. The two false breakouts have given clear bearish signals. If BTC continues to decline, ETH may still test the 2800 area downwards.

Comprehensive analysis indicates that, until the trend becomes clear, BTC is expected to fluctuate within the range of 850-905, while ETH will repeatedly fluctuate within the range of 2800-3050. Considering the lack of liquidity during the holiday period, it is advisable to wait for a confirmed breakout of the trend before deciding on a direction, and to avoid blindly going against the trend.