2025-12-24 05:50:21

#以太坊行情解读 Someone has recently been looking into an analyst's leveraged strategy on ETH, so I checked the on-chain data and large holder positions. The results are quite interesting: his operations almost perfectly coincide with the whale accumulation trend I've been monitoring lately, but the leverage risk involved here is definitely something to be cautious about.

**What does the on-chain data say**

Over the past month, ETH whale addresses holding more than 10,000 tokens have collectively increased their holdings, totaling over 800,000 ETH. Net outflows of ETH from exchanges have hit a record high, indicating that large holders are continuously accumulating coins. Even more interesting is that the collateralized borrowing scale in the Aave lending pool for ETH has grown by 40% month-over-month—institutions are borrowing money to buy coins, and this signal couldn't be more obvious.

**Why are they daring to do this**

Looking back at historical records, you'll find that after the halving cycle, ETH often experiences explosive rallies within 12-18 months. The 2020-2021 surge is a prime example. If we reverse-engineer based on the expected Bitcoin halving in 2025, the probability of ETH breaking its previous high ($4,800) in 2026 is quite high. The target of $10,000 is not just empty talk; there is data backing it up.

**But risks are also here**

Currently, the leverage is about 2x. If the price drops below the $2,900 key level in the short term, it could trigger chain reactions of liquidations. However, judging by the phased accumulation strategy, the average entry price is locked at $3,208, indicating they have a full understanding of volatility.

**My perspective**

"I agree with the idea that missing out on a trend worth thousands just because of a few hundred dollars of fluctuation." But the key is how to do it:

Don't follow leverage blindly; institutions have hedging tools and risk control systems. Retail investors, if careless, can easily become the bagholders. Dollar-cost averaging is much more reliable than going all-in. The next two years, 2024-2025, are a window for accumulating chips, and sharp dips can be opportunities. And most importantly: absolutely do not short. In the context of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle plus spot ETFs, shorting is essentially going against the trend.

I've already increased my ETH position from 35% to 45%, leaving the rest for black swan events. If you truly believe in the 2026 logic, every deep correction could be a structural opportunity. Remember those who got caught at the bottom at 312? Don't repeat that mistake in this cycle.

ETH-0.33%

AAVE-0.18%

BTC-0.38%

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GasSavingMaster

· 7h ago

The collective accumulation action by whales is indeed interesting, but I'm more concerned about whether the 2900 level can hold. Damn, leverage is really a double-edged sword; institutions have risk control that we don't. It's safer to invest steadily and not play heartbeat games with those big players.

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StablecoinAnxiety

· 7h ago

Whales hoarding 800,000 coins is indeed terrifying, but daring to do so with 2x leverage... I think even institutions have to make a living. Retail investors using leverage are playing with fire; a single liquidation could shatter their dreams. It's safer to stick with dollar-cost averaging. The recent 312 dip definitely caused some blood losses; this time, we need to be more cautious. ETH 2026 breaking 10,000? Statistically, it's possible, but only if we survive until then. That key level at 2900 is real; if it breaks, just wait for the fireworks show. Talking about following the trend rather than leverage—this statement is too absolute. Retail investors, listen up! Spot ETF truly changes the game; short-selling is basically a suicide investment. I'm also adding to my position, but I didn't dare to go as aggressive as 45%; keeping some ammunition makes me feel safer. I'm optimistic about the long term, but I'm worried a black swan in the short term might wipe me out.

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VirtualRichDream

· 7h ago

I also saw the whales hoarding coins, but the 2x leverage really needs to be handled carefully. Don't follow the trend and you'll be fine. This wave is indeed a window of accumulation. I'm gradually increasing my positions, just worried that some people shout out "10,000" and then get liquidated by leverage. Institutions have risk control, retail investors don't. The ones making money are always those who got in early. Let's just stick to dollar-cost averaging. Once $2900 breaks, the chain liquidation scene is frightening to think about, so I won't even touch leverage. Shorts are foolish now. This pace is forcing a countertrend, which is just uncomfortable. That bloody lesson from wave 312, this time we can't afford to bottom out no matter what. Institutions borrowing money to buy coins are increasing by 40% monthly, which shows they are really optimistic. You just need to stay patient and withstand the volatility.

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RugDocScientist

· 8h ago

I also saw the story of whales hoarding coins, but the 2x leverage line is too tight; one black swan event could wipe it all out, not worth it. Institutions have risk control, we don't. Don't learn from them to play with leverage; gradual dollar-cost averaging is the right way. Locking in the average price of 3208 was indeed clever, but I still trust spot ETH more; leverage makes it hard to sleep well. I've heard the story about 2026, but those who follow now need to think carefully—are you betting on the trend or on your opponent's risk control? Retail investors are most likely to get it wrong. Everyone who was in that wave at 312 eventually broke even, mainly because they didn't use leverage. Once this batch gets liquidated, there's no rescue. Lending data in Aave is a real signal, but that doesn't mean following now guarantees profit; timing is crucial, bro. Don't let a few percentage points of volatility affect your mindset; that's the biggest difference between retail investors and institutions. Will a drop below 2900 really trigger liquidation? Or will the bottom get cushioned? Has anyone calculated this specific risk model? I think dollar-cost averaging 45% ETH is already a somewhat aggressive allocation; saving the remaining bullets is the right move. Black swans will definitely appear again this year.

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HodlTheDoor

· 8h ago

Leverage traders will eventually suffer losses. I still believe in steady dollar-cost averaging to earn consistently. Whales are accumulating, and I am too. Just don't follow their leverage strategies. This wave is indeed interesting. $2900 is a critical threshold; breaking it could be troublesome. I think, rather than studying how they play, it's better to grasp the rhythm and accumulate slowly on your own. Those who short are all newbies. In this day and age, going against the trend just invites liquidation. Is $10,000 for ETH a dream? Probably not, but the process definitely won't be a straight line upward. You still need to prepare psychologically. Whales adding 800,000 coins—what does that mean? Institutions are bottom-fishing, and we're still debating a few hundred dollars' rise or fall. Retail investors and institutions are on completely different levels. Don't expect to copy their trading strategies. This accumulation window has really only been in the past two years. Missing it means only regret. The average price of $3,208 is still a very important reference point. If it drops, you can add to your position.

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BlockTalk

· 8h ago

Oops, leverage really is a double-edged sword. The data looks great, but a slight tremor and it's all over. Wait, no, breaking 2900 really could trigger a chain liquidation? Isn't the institutional average price at 3208 quite risky? Oh my, that 312 wave still casts a shadow of my blood loss. I really can't go all-in this time. DCA is really awesome. Compared to gambling on a big market move, patiently accumulating chips is a much better mindset. Wait, now that Aave's lending scale is skyrocketing, is it really just optimism? Could it actually be a risk signal? Short sellers, are you trying to get wrecked? The Federal Reserve still dares to short this cycle. This guy with 45% ETH position really believes in 2026. I better stay conservative. If this logic was believed last year, would it be too late to believe now? Do whales always make money by holding coins? They also have to cut losses sometimes.

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HashRateHustler

· 8h ago

Whales are accumulating, institutions are borrowing money, this signal is indeed very strong. But leveraged players are still likely to be knocked out at 2900, retail investors should really not follow.

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