#比特币与黄金战争 The story of short-term holders' cost basis is quite interesting—these folks are mainly retail investors, and their average cost is currently stuck at around 101,538 yuan.

Since October 29th, the price hasn't reclaimed this line, and it has been below it for 56 days. This isn't the first time; looking back at historical records: after falling below on February 25th, it stayed below for 57 days; on August 1st, it was 50 days; and earlier, on August 17, 2023, it lasted for 60 days. So now there's a question—has this round also nearly ended?

Honestly, there's a real possibility of that. Based on the current price performance, it does seem like a bottom is forming in this phase. Once the bottom is established, the price will naturally move toward the cost basis line. Over time, the short-term holders' cost basis will also shift downward, eventually approaching the 100,000 mark. When that happens, even if there's a rebound, the resistance at this level won't be small.

But this time might be different from the previous three instances. The last bull market roughly started at the end of 2022, and the three major corrections all occurred within the bull market framework. But now, a lot of data are signaling a bear market. My judgment is that even if the price later rebounds above the cost basis line, it probably won't hold steady and will eventually fall back below it. $BTC $ETH $BNB The market is in a struggle, and the cost basis of holders remains an unavoidable topic.