【Talking about Small Partners, Sharing My True Judgment on the Big Cycle & #山寨季 】

Recently, a set of data about #Joshua is quite eye-catching:
There are over 300 tokens that have fallen more than 80% from their peak.
I'm not very confident in the sampling criteria, so I ran it again with AI.
From the top 100 by 👉 market cap, from the 2025 high to now:
• Fell more than 50%: 72
• Fell more than 60%: 60
• Fell more than 70%: 45
• Fell more than 80%: 30
• Fell more than 90%: 15
Even $BTC retracement is 30%, let alone altcoins.
So here’s the question:
Is 👉 really "VC coins are no good"?
I think not.
The essence is only one: at this stage, risk pricing is simply not suitable.
The core reason is very simple:
The monetary environment is too tight.
Since 2022, the Federal Reserve has aggressively raised interest rates:
Interest rates from near 0 → 5.5%
Even if there are symbolic rate cuts in 2024–2025,
real liquidity still hasn't returned:
• Balance sheet reduction only stops on 2025/12/1
• Available liquidity ≠ 2021
👉 High interest rates + liquidity withdrawal = risk asset hell mode
It’s not just in crypto, the US stock market is the same.
Many people only focus on Crypto, but traditional markets are even more brutal.
A common comparison I use is Nike:
• Fell about 30% in 2025
• From the 2021 high to now, nearly 70% down
• But its revenue in fiscal year 2025 was $46.3 billion
👉 Even such cash-flowing, brand-name companies are like this,
then for "narrative over value" altcoins, a 50% cut is just the starting price.
So the truth is:
It’s not that altcoins are not viable,
but at this stage, the market simply doesn’t give risk premiums.
Funds will only flow into:
• US tech giants
• Government bonds
• Cash & money market funds
And not into:
• High volatility
• High valuation
• Altcoins that need "dumb money" to buy in
Why does the "Fake Altcoin Season" keep failing?
Because what the market lacks is not projects, but dumb money.
• Institutional money: only buys BTC / ETH
• Retail money: sucked away by high interest rates
• VCs also dare not push hard: if they do, no one will buy, and they’ll be the first to die
👉 The so-called "VC coin collapse" is just a surface phenomenon
👉 The real problem is: a gap in incremental funds
My approach is very simple:
In this round, I almost didn’t lose money on altcoins, and the reason is only one:
I basically don’t buy.
Except for:
• A few mainstream tokens
• A small amount of platform coins with certainty
All the rest that require me to actively research and spend money to buy,
👉 almost none.
Because the current cycle simply doesn’t have the soil for Altcoin Season.
One last key judgment:
Will Altcoin Season definitely come?
Yes, it’s an inevitable part of the cycle.
But the only premise is:
👉 Global liquidity begins to truly reverse
Until then:
• Don’t gamble
• Don’t fantasize
• Don’t be hijacked by "Altcoin Season is coming"
All I do now is one thing:
Use repositioning to replace cutting losses.
Gradually exchange tokens that can survive until the next cycle,
for assets that might have pricing power in the next cycle.
The cycle is correct, the mistake is in the rhythm.
Before liquidity returns,
Survival is much more important than catching the trend.