Honestly, I am personally very skeptical about these second- and third-tier new platforms emerging now.

Sponsored by @Neura_Web3_AI

The market-making logic of prediction markets is fundamentally different from DEX and Perp DEX.

Asset structure inherently makes it more difficult to operate.

Yes / No binary assets will inevitably result in one side going to zero; prices do not fluctuate continuously but often experience sudden extreme volatility at critical points.

Moreover, most counterparties are people with faster information and closer to the events themselves, essentially insiders trading with insiders.

In such markets, market makers are naturally at a disadvantage; the risk structure is reversed.

You're not providing liquidity to the market; you're gambling that you won't be the one to get swept away.

Retail investors entering as market makers, to put it bluntly, are basically giving away value for free.

Look at how top platforms have survived.

There have been reports that Polymarket and Kalshi have truly invested millions of dollars in liquidity incentives.

This is not just subsidies; it's long-term spending to gain depth, trust, and user mindshare.

More importantly, they have already completed funding rounds and secured cognitive advantages, so users naturally gravitate toward them.

What can new platforms do to compete with them?

Prediction markets are not a sector where you can simply build a UI, add some gameplay, and airdrop tokens to naturally grow.

Without depth, no one will trade; without trading, there is even less depth.

This is a highly dependent positive feedback loop that relies on cold start resources.

Of course, some new platforms may have strong backing behind them, capable of continuously pumping out tokens and hard-raising liquidity.

But realistically, such cases are rare, not the norm for every platform you see now.

So, in my view, the current wave of new prediction market players is more like betting on one thing: that the leading platforms will make mistakes someday, or that regulatory or structural upheavals will occur.

Otherwise, under normal competitive conditions, most cannot cross the liquidity threshold.

Prediction markets have never been a path suitable for lightweight startups from the beginning.