The probabilities of all related individuals in the Epstein files have surged collectively

Currently, the Polymarket market "Who will appear in the newly released Epstein files?" has seen the probabilities of all options jump from an average of 1% last week to over 10%, and our old friend Elon Musk's probability has skyrocketed from 3.3% a week ago to 100%, settling as "Yes."

This collective increase in probabilities stems from an extremely obscure option — that U.S. Democratic Congresswoman AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) was unexpectedly settled as "Yes" yesterday. The absurdity of this event is comparable to Jia Ling being classified as a "related person in the Wu Moufan case" just because her name and Wu Moufan appeared together in a Spring Festival Gala newspaper excerpt.

AOC was born in 1989. Based on her age and social circle, her timeline does not align at all with the Epstein case. As of yesterday, her appearance probability on the list was only 0.3%. However, shortly after the disclosure of document EFTA00032589 yesterday, AOC's probability skyrocketed over 300 times within 5 hours and was directly settled.

With the mindset of trying to link AOC to Epstein, traders opened the document, only to find it was just a Google summary email. It happened to contain the sentence "Congresswoman AOC is listening to Michael Cohen's testimony," and since the market rule is "any mention in the document counts as Yes," this caused AOC to meet the definition of appearing in the document.

This precedent has made investors realize that, since many documents are still unpublished, any seemingly obscure option could be defined as "related person" due to the market rule mechanism. This has led to a significant increase in the probabilities of all options in recent days.