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Talking with friends about technical analysis, I often say: Don't make your charts look like electronic displays at a train station; stacking indicators endlessly is pointless. Especially in the crypto market, where things change every minute, mastering three sets of tools—moving averages, volume, and support/resistance—can help you avoid most risks. Today, I’ll share the strategies I’ve tested in real trading; they definitely have some personal bias, but I promise they’re straightforward.
**Moving Average System: My "Chart-Reading Weapon"**
My habit is simple—only three moving averages on the candlestick chart: 5-day, 20-day, and 60-day. Why just these three? Many people like to pile dozens of indicators on the chart, resulting in a colorful mess that can be confusing. Instead of being dazzled, it’s better to focus on doing one thing well.
**What a Bullish Pattern Looks Like**
An upward trend should display a "staircase arrangement": the 5-day MA stays firmly above the 20-day MA, which in turn stays above the 60-day MA, with prices following the 5-day MA upward. During Bitcoin’s rise from 38,000 to 45,000 last year, every pullback saw prices bounce near the 5-day or 20-day MA, feeling like stepping on a spring. This is a typical bullish pattern—if the three lines stay in order, the trend’s vitality remains, and there’s no need to rush to exit.
**The Downtrend Is Just the Opposite**
When prices fall, you’ll see the 5-day MA being pressed down by the 20-day MA, which is also below the 60-day MA, forming a structure like stacked blocks pressing downward. More painfully, prices might not even touch the 5-day MA, and any rebound becomes an escape route. For example, when Ethereum dropped from 2200 to 1800, the moving average system looked like this—if you’re trying to bottom fish, now is the time to control your hands and not make reckless moves.
**The Most Annoying—Sideways Market**
The three MAs bunch together, and prices jump up and down in the middle. In this situation, the moving averages have little guiding significance. Especially when the lines are stuck together and crossing, it’s hard to tell the direction. Instead of guessing blindly, it’s better to wait for a breakout signal before acting.
**My View on Moving Averages**
Moving average systems have a natural flaw—they are lagging indicators and can never keep up with real-time price changes. So don’t treat moving averages as absolute truth; they are just tools to help you judge the overall trend.