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It is said that only over 2.7 million coins are truly liquid in the market. This number sounds quite alarming at first— isn't the total 21 million? Actually, it's quite understandable. Satoshi Nakamoto's mined coins have never moved, and those lost early on, frozen by governments, or locked away by large holders who buy and hold tightly... these add up to the majority. The ones left in our hands that can actually be traded? Becoming increasingly scarce.
On one side, supply is tightening; on the other side, the signals from global central banks' "liquidity injections" are becoming more obvious. Expectations of Fed rate cuts are heating up, and funds are flowing back. When scarcity meets ample liquidity, the market usually stirs. I personally think there's a trick here.
Look at what the institutions are doing—names like BlackRock, MicroStrategy, appearing in the news every day. They’re not here for short-term gains; they’re truly accumulating. Every purchase is frozen, gradually absorbing the tradable chips in the market. This "silent concentration" process is actually more meaningful than daily price fluctuations.
There's another phenomenon worth pondering: recently, Bitcoin and gold sometimes move together—rising and falling in unison. Especially when they both decline sharply, it often indicates that the overall cash flow in the market is a bit tight—not necessarily bearish, but that everyone is temporarily short on cash. This situation usually doesn't last long.
My judgment is that the real turning point will come when liquidity is released again. Once the Fed shifts its stance, where will this wave of money flow? History won't repeat exactly, but the market logic is clear: besides stocks, bonds, and real estate—the traditional three—crypt assets, especially Bitcoin, are likely to become the new destination.