I don't usually talk about this topic openly, not because I'm afraid you won't learn anything, but honestly, because I'm afraid someone might truly understand it, and by the time we meet at the end of the year, they might outshine me.

Let me first lay out the premise. For small funds aiming for growth in a short cycle, it's never about "accurate prediction"—that’s an illusion to begin with. What truly matters is timing and understanding the structure thoroughly. I never recommend going all-in, nor do I suggest copying a specific point; instead, I advocate adopting a different perspective on the market.

My personal favorite time to watch is during the quietest hours of the market. When activity is sparse, information noise is minimal, and market sentiment is relatively calm—ironically, it’s during these times that the real clues are most likely to reveal themselves. Many key capital movements happen silently during these "boring" moments. They don’t cause explosions or attract attention, but the traces are there. When depth suddenly thins out, spreads are artificially widened, or related assets show brief mismatches—these details all point to one thing: funds are shifting positions.

Those who understand know what’s moving behind the scenes; those who don’t just think the market is dull.

When I actually trade, I never go all-in at once. The first position is just a test to see if it’s truly starting or if it’s a false alarm. The main positions are only built when the market sentiment is thoroughly distorted and prices start behaving abnormally. The goal is to profit from volatility, not some kind of faith premium.

There’s also a core principle: always leave yourself room to maneuver. The market’s harshest blow often comes right when the consensus is that "it’s about time to wrap up." If you have no available ammunition, you’re just watching others eat the meat.

Regarding risk control, I have to be honest. Experienced traders don’t just aim to avoid losses; they aim to avoid being collectively wiped out. Setting stop-loss levels isn’t about following some trading tutorial; it’s about identifying the price points most likely to become targets for predators or to be simultaneously targeted by many.

Finally, I’ll say one more thing. The essence of this approach is, at its core, understanding the intentions of the funds, waiting for the right rhythm, and then being patient enough not to move recklessly. It’s not about having some exquisite technique, but about resisting the impulse to operate casually.

Once you understand this thoroughly, it becomes a powerful tool. If you don’t get it, better to just pretend you never heard it. The market is never short of opportunities; what’s scarce are those who can survive to the next cycle.