2025-12-24 17:24:19

The market has indeed been changing in recent days. The spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to see outflows—$188.38 million outflow for Bitcoin and $95.53 million outflow for Ethereum. This ongoing signal of capital withdrawal is worth paying attention to.

From a policy perspective, the actions of the Federal Reserve are even more worth pondering. According to CME Federal Funds Futures data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is only 13.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate level is as high as 86.7%. At the same time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently proposed reconsidering the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which could have a profound impact on market expectations.

Security incidents are also testing market confidence. Gnosis Chain completed a hard fork and successfully recovered $116 million of blacklisted funds from Balancer. On the other hand, Polymarket was also exposed to an attack due to a third-party authentication service vulnerability, resulting in some users losing funds.

There is an interesting development—an "Human vs. AI" live trading competition at a major exchange just concluded. The AI team suffered a slight loss but ultimately outperformed the human team, which somewhat indicates the difficulty of the market.

Even more noteworthy is the overall industry trend. In 2025, there were 267 M&A transactions in the global crypto industry, totaling $8.6 billion, nearly four times the amount in 2024, setting a new record. Industry insiders expect the M&A wave in 2026 to continue heating up due to stricter compliance requirements and the implementation of stablecoin regulations.

Wall Street’s 15 major investment banks summarized their market outlook for 2026 as "Precarious"—despite various stimulus policies driving the market overall upward, investors still face many challenges.

BTC0,56%

ETH0,43%

GNO1,18%

BAL-1,88%

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StableNomad

· 2025-12-27 12:32

ngl the fed holding rates at 86.7% feels like watching UST peg all over again... everyone says "it's fine" until it isn't. but statistically speaking, those etf outflows paired with this? yeah that's the correlation coefficient nobody wants to see rn

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OnChainDetective

· 2025-12-27 10:05

1.883 billion escape? This number is too precise, it must be an organized dump, I need to take a good look at the whale addresses. Wait, the Federal Reserve has an 86.7% probability of maintaining interest rates... What kind of information is hidden behind this? AI surprisingly beat human teams, is the market so complex? Even machines are losing but still managing to win. The 116 million recovered from Balancer, what does this indicate? Is someone manipulating the market to buy back? 8.6 billion USD acquisition? Fourfold growth? It feels like big capital is quietly accumulating chips. Fifteen investment banks say "on the brink"... It seems like they are laying the groundwork for the upcoming harvest. Can't sleep in the early morning, always feel like big players are monitoring on-chain data. I'm not suffering from paranoia.

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GasFeeVictim

· 2025-12-26 16:06

Damn, the funds are running out. I really can't hold on anymore. Wait, AI actually beats humans? Then what am I trading for? Going all in on the robot. With such high interest rates, will it crash the coin? Feeling a bit anxious. The mergers are so aggressive. Is there still a chance to pick up bargains next year? Balancer's hacking incident has been resolved. But Polymarket's situation is really heartbreaking. Now everything is testing confidence. Should I hold my coins or run?

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FOMOmonster

· 2025-12-25 19:30

ETF large outflows are so intense, we really need to be cautious this time. But on the other hand, AI can still counterattack human trading teams—has the market become this competitive...

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AlgoAlchemist

· 2025-12-24 17:54

The capital outflow is so fierce, and the Federal Reserve is again holding interest rates tightly, it really feels like we need to be cautious by 2026.

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alpha_leaker

· 2025-12-24 17:52

Is the outflow so fierce, are we really going to run away? AI is losing money but still beating humans, we should reflect haha Bessent wants to change the inflation target, this is definitely a long-term plan The 2026 merger wave is coming, who will be eaten? "On the brink"—is that all? Wall Street is also starting to joke around Polymarket crashed again, whose turn is it to stumble this time Funds are withdrawing so aggressively, is the bottom about to be eaten or continue to short... Gnosis Chain hard fork recovered 116 million, awesome, this is justice The Federal Reserve maintains no rate cut, a cold shower indeed 267 mergers, four times growth, is this data real? The market's "difficulty" is getting higher and higher, are we all destined to be harvested?

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CountdownToBroke

· 2025-12-24 17:48

Wait, humans have lost to AI? Then how am I still alive with manual trading haha Humans vs AI are both losing, now that's really funny The signal of capital withdrawal, we should have paid attention to it earlier, right? The Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates? Then just keep holding on, I'm used to it anyway The 2026 M&A wave is coming, it feels like there will be another story of cutting leeks again With so much ETF outflow, big players are really scared, huh? Bessent changes inflation target? That's just inviting trouble for themselves Polymarket got hacked again, when will they finally fix the security issues? A $8.6 billion acquisition, sounds impressive but most of it went to the top players, retail investors are still the same

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On-ChainDiver

· 2025-12-24 17:44

Funds running away so aggressively, I really have to panic Even AI is losing money, what else can we expect... Interest rate cut by 13%? Laughable, it's basically giving up on cutting rates That move by Gnosis was truly excellent, but Polymarket's failure was even more heartbreaking A fourfold increase in mergers and acquisitions sounds impressive, but next year's compliance crackdown will be the real brutal blow Wall Street folks love to play the "precarious" game, but in reality? They still end up eating it Next year, stablecoin regulation is coming, and the rules of the game will change again This wave of ETF sell-off feels like institutions are dumping their holdings, right?

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potentially_notable

· 2025-12-24 17:27

Funds are flowing out so aggressively, yet some are still buying the dip. Truly brave warriors. AI is losing money but still outperforming humans, which shows we're all bad at this. No rate cuts? How are we supposed to play next year? Just waiting to die. Mergers and acquisitions are growing fourfold. The big players are quietly stacking chips. Polymarket has another issue. Can we still trust third parties? If interest rates stay steady, what impact will that have on the coin prices? The 2% inflation target might need to be changed. How much water should we let out? People vs. machines, or rather machines winning—markets are really heating up. Security incidents are happening one after another. Who still dares to hold coins with confidence? A compliance storm is coming. How will small coins survive? Wall Street says it's on the brink of crisis, so I need to buy the dip even more. The big players are aggressively doing mergers and acquisitions, while retail investors are still debating stop-losses. AI is losing money, so how do we still want to make a profit? Wake up, everyone.

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