Weak signals in the US labor market, September employment data released today

The September non-farm employment data, which was delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, is finally scheduled to be released to the market today. This announcement is directly related to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, drawing significant investor attention.

Expected Employment Indicators

The U.S. labor market in September is expected to continue showing signs of slowdown. The number of new non-farm jobs is projected to increase to around 50,000, compared to 22,000 in August. This suggests that the momentum in the summer labor market has significantly weakened.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at around 4.3%, and signals of change are also seen in wages. The average hourly wage is forecasted to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual growth rate maintaining at 4.7%, consistent with previous levels.

Background of the Delayed Release Schedule

Originally, this data was scheduled to be released on October 3, but due to the longest-ever U.S. federal government shutdown in history, the release was postponed. Additionally, the October employment data may be entirely canceled, as the delay in budget approval has made it impossible to collect the current household survey data.

Market Focus

This U.S. employment report will serve as an important indicator of the labor market’s actual resilience amid deepening economic weakness. In particular, a slowdown in employment growth could increase expectations for rate cuts, potentially exerting broad influence on global asset markets.