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Regarding the statement that "cryptocurrency asset valuations have finally returned to reality," I think it's an oversimplification. A more accurate explanation is that the crypto market is more reflective than any other asset class, and price fluctuations are amplified infinitely—especially during downturns. Fundamentally, fear far outweighs greed, and that is the driving force. Once market sentiment turns pessimistic, people tend to overreact, leading to overselling of assets. Conversely, during optimistic cycles, the market also overestimates potential. This asymmetric emotional drive is a unique characteristic of the crypto market. Therefore, rather than saying valuations are correcting, it's more accurate to say that market sentiment is swinging like a pendulum.
Fear indeed has a much stronger destructive power than greed. One person sells, and ten follow suit and dump the market. This is the curse of the crypto market.
I agree with the Pendulum Theory, but the problem is... who can accurately hit the midpoint of the pendulum?
The phrase "market sentiment is swinging like a pendulum" is spot on, more so than any technical or fundamental analysis.
Because of this asymmetry, I get cut every time. It’s hilarious.
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I like the clock theory; it has much more depth than the cliché of "returning to reality."
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Really, the overbought scenario repeats every time—it's human nature.
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The description of asymmetric emotional driving is brilliant; this is the truth of the crypto market.
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Still the same old story: understanding the emotional cycle is the key to making money.
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It's always like this—collective panic selling during pessimism, collective all-in during optimism.
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This explains things better than any "value return" theory.