Can Crypto Bounce Back? Bitcoin's Fourth Consecutive Weekly Loss Sparks Recovery Debate Amid Fed Uncertainty

Bitcoin is trading at $87.46K after digesting four straight weeks of losses—the longest losing streak since mid-2024—but recent sessions have shown tentative stabilization. The quarterly damage is severe: BTC is down 24.43% for Q4, positioning this as the worst three-month period since 2018. Yet beneath the surface, market mechanics suggest dip-buyers haven’t abandoned ship entirely.

The Technical Clues That Matter

Chain analysis reveals an intriguing signal: the aggregate spot bid-ask delta at 10-depth has climbed to its second-highest reading of the year, indicating substantial wall-building on the buy side and digestion of selling pressure. This same metric spiked during the March-April downturn earlier in 2024 before triggering a 64% rally—a historical precedent that’s got some traders watching closely.

Sean Dawson, lead analyst at Derive, offers a tempered perspective on near-term recovery: “Pessimism has likely peaked, but this could easily be a bull trap.” His caution stems from multiple headwinds. Digital asset treasury funds are trading below net asset value, hampering their purchasing power. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs continue bleeding capital rather than attracting fresh inflows—not the ingredient needed for a sustained turnaround.

When Will Crypto Recover? The Fed Factor

The macro picture shifted dramatically this week. Market pricing now reflects a 70% probability of a December rate cut, up from 40% just seven days prior—a 30-percentage-point swing driven by softening inflation signals. This repricing briefly lifted BTC 6% from its November 21 nadir of $82,100. The Federal Reserve’s December 1 quantitative tightening conclusion and December 10 rate announcement loom large; these catalysts could reshape sentiment heading into 2025.

However, Dawson warns that rising rate-cut odds don’t guarantee a smooth path. Stubborn inflation expectations may slow the Fed’s pivot to quantitative easing, leaving traders caught between hope and caution. Options markets reflect this unease: traders are aggressively positioning for downside via put contracts expiring in December, with strikes concentrated in the $80K-$85K band.

The Outlook Through Year-End

In Dawson’s base case, Bitcoin briefly dips into the mid-to-high $70K range before clawing back to approximately $90K by December 31—barring a sudden hawkish reversal from the Fed. A more constructive 2025 could see BTC approach $100K in early 2026, though the path there remains choppy. Sentiment remains in “extreme fear,” though it’s thawed slightly following the recent bounce.

The coming weeks belong to the Fed. Their decisions will set the tone for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset complex, making this a critical inflection point for anyone asking when crypto can recover.