The central bank's hawkish stance resonates globally! The US dollar's historical exchange rate remains strong, and gold breaks through $4200

The Stock Market Opens with Its Own Highlights

On December 9, U.S. stock futures showed a mixed pattern. Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 futures both rose slightly, up 0.05%, but Nasdaq 100 futures dipped marginally by 0.01%. In individual stock performance, AI leader NVIDIA (NVDA) stood out with a gain of 1.63%, reacting positively after Trump announced approval for NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China. In contrast, electric vehicle giant Tesla (TSLA) declined by 0.92%, highlighting a contrasting trend between the two.

Employment Data Arrives, the USD’s Historic Exchange Rate Volatility Is Imminent

Tonight at 23:00 Eastern Time, the U.S. will release October’s JOLTS job openings data, with market expectations reaching 7.2 million. FXStreet analysts warn that optimistic employment data could short-term boost the dollar, but this rally is unlikely to be sustained. Looking at the long-term trend of the USD’s historic exchange rates, short-term strength may not alter the medium-term pattern.

RBA Hawkish Signal Sparks AUD Rally

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained interest rates at 3.60% in its latest decision but sent a hawkish signal. The central bank explicitly pointed out that strong domestic demand is increasing inflationary pressures, leaving room for further rate hikes. This policy stance immediately pushed the AUD higher, with AUD/USD rising 0.40% to 0.6646 at the time of writing. Compared to most central banks around the world cutting rates, the RBA’s tightening stance stands out.

Gold and Silver Rise Together, the Safe-Haven Logic of Precious Metals

Gold and silver prices rebounded collectively, with gold returning above the $4,200 level, up 0.35% to $4,205 per ounce; silver rose 1.09% to $58.78 per ounce, approaching a historical high. Market participants believe that this rise in precious metals reflects a delicate balance—markets bet on the Fed continuing to cut rates but also worry that such cuts will be accompanied by more cautious policy guidance, the so-called “hawkish rate cuts.” This wavering expectation directly impacts the USD and U.S. Treasury yields, creating a tug-of-war that both constrains and supports gold’s rally.

Iraq Signals Increased Production, Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure

In the energy sector, an Iraqi oil field supplying 0.5% of global oil production resumed output, heightening concerns over oversupply. Oil prices fell accordingly, with WTI down 0.12% to $58.77 per barrel and Brent down 0.19% to $62.40 per barrel. This expansion on the supply side, coupled with demand uncertainties, exerts dual pressure on oil prices.

Market Outlook

As the hawkish tone from the RBA emerges, the strong pattern of the USD’s historic exchange rate also consolidates. In the short term, employment data, monetary policy expectations, and asset prices will interact in a triangular manner. Investors should closely monitor the inverse correlation between the USD exchange rate and gold trends.