Crypto 2025 Was a Macro Story

Crypto didn’t crash in 2025 because of hacks or bad protocols.

It crashed because macro took over.

The first selloff hit in Q1. Market cap dropped from 3.6T to 2.42T in just a few months. No FTX, no exploits. Trump’s trade war narrative pushed markets into risk off and crypto moved with every other risky asset.

When trade tensions paused, liquidity came back fast. From April to August, BTC and ETH made new all time highs. People started saying the four year cycle was dead and a supercycle had begun.

Then August changed everything. Trade war fears returned. The market started to look like 2021 again. Double top discussions spread and long term holders began selling. The second crash was faster and bigger. Market cap fell from 4.28T to 2.89T by late November.

By Q4, macro fully controlled price. Inflation stayed high, unemployment rose, and the Bank of Japan signaled rate hikes. Capital went defensive and leverage unwound.

The lesson from 2025 is simple.

Crypto still follows the four year cycle.

Macro and liquidity matter more than narratives.

Hopefully 2026 brings a healthier market and a real reset for the next leg up.