ON Semiconductor Analyst Targets 47% Gain by 2026, But Wall Street Remains Skeptical

The Bold Forecast That Stands Apart

While consensus attention remains fixated on Nvidia(NASDAQ: NVDA) with expectations of 44% upside potential, an outlier view on ON Semiconductor(NASDAQ: ON) deserves closer examination. Evercore ISI’s Mark Lipacis raised his price target to $80 in November—a 47% increase from December 2025 closing prices—suggesting Onsemi could deliver outsized returns compared to its 30% year-to-date decline.

This projection stands in stark contrast to the broader analyst consensus, where only 15 of 34 surveyed analysts rated the chip designer as a “buy” or “strong buy,” with 18 recommending holds and one suggesting a sell.

Why One Analyst Sees Significant Upside Potential

Lipacis’s optimism anchors on several developments poised to reshape Onsemi’s growth trajectory. The company occupies a critical position in the semiconductor supply chain—developing intelligent power and sensing solutions rather than the GPU-focused approach of competitors. Onsemi’s technology reaches across AI data centers, electric vehicles, industrial automation, and grid infrastructure.

The $44 billion total addressable market represents a compelling opportunity, particularly with an anticipated 18% compound annual growth rate. Two catalysts stand out:

New Power Semiconductor Technology. The launch of vertical gallium nitride (vGaN) power semiconductors addresses a genuine market need. These chips operate at higher voltages with faster switching capabilities, delivering up to 50% energy loss reduction. For AI data center operators managing power consumption at scale, this performance advantage could prove decisive.

Strategic Acquisition. The recent acquisition of Aura Semiconductor’s Vcore power technologies directly targets next-generation AI infrastructure gaps. Management highlighted this as essential for completing the solution portfolio for hyperscale data center deployments.

The Reality Check: Where Consensus Appears More Credible

However, closer inspection suggests the market’s measured stance carries merit. Onsemi’s recent quarterly performance reveals concerning trends: Q3 revenue contracted 12% year-over-year while diluted earnings per share dropped 32%. Management’s guidance projects 10-12% compound annual growth through 2027—respectable by semiconductor industry standards but dwarfed by Nvidia’s projected 48% revenue expansion next year.

The EV adoption headwinds present another structural concern. Bloomberg NEF data confirms U.S. EV market deceleration driven by fuel-economy standard rollbacks, Inflation Reduction Act provision removals, and potential California air quality standard restrictions. Since Onsemi’s fastest-growing addressable market segments concentrate in EV and charging infrastructure, this slowdown carries direct implications.

Valuation provides limited margin of safety. At 18.5x forward earnings, Onsemi’s multiple offers modest discount but insufficient cushion to justify the aggressive 47% upside projection.

The Investment Perspective

The analyst community’s more conservative 9% average price target reflects legitimate caution. While Onsemi possesses genuine technological advantages through vGaN and strategic positioning in AI infrastructure, the company must demonstrate revenue acceleration and margin expansion to validate Lipacis’s bullish thesis.

For investors considering exposure to the AI semiconductor ecosystem, the divergence between this singular 47% projection and the broader $80 street skepticism warrants careful due diligence on execution timelines and competitive positioning before committing capital.