#2026行情预测 Is a Cold Winter Coming?

Analysts at financial services giant Cantor predict that Bitcoin's winter is approaching, and prices may further decline over the next year.
Cantor's team remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin, including institutional adoption and regulatory clarity, but expects trading to be weak in the coming year, dragging down prices. The fear of a crypto winter itself could trigger one. According to Cantor's analysts, “If we are truly in a crypto winter, we are only about 85 days into the decline from the peak to the trough, and this process usually lasts 365 days. As marginal buyers retreat in fear, Bitcoin could continue to weaken over the next few months.”
In early 2025, the cryptocurrency industry experienced multiple positive developments: the new chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expressed a friendly attitude toward cryptocurrencies, the Trump administration established a dedicated officer for cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence affairs, measures related to Bitcoin strategic reserves were implemented, and a milestone stablecoin bill was introduced. However, the price decline over the past three months has dampened strategists' market expectations for 2026.
Some analysts believe that institutional demand will become more cautious, making it difficult to push Bitcoin prices significantly higher.
“In my view, Bitcoin in Q1 2026 is more likely to stabilize and gradually recover, with funds re-accumulating, rather than starting a strong upward phase at the beginning of the year,” said senior market analyst Linh Tran. She added, “Bitcoin's price volatility may remain in the range of around $80,000 to $100,000.”
Nic Puckrin, co-founder of the cryptocurrency information platform Coin Bureau and an investment analyst, believes that “fiat currency devaluation trading” will be the main theme in 2026, with precious metals benefiting the most. “Bitcoin is likely to benefit from this as well, but a significant surprise price surge may be difficult to achieve,” he said. Although Bitcoin is expected to reach new all-time highs, the new high levels are unlikely to substantially surpass the previous level of $126,000, and a bear market may follow after the new high.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered Bank has recently sharply lowered its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $300,000 to $150,000.
Since October 2025, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have performed significantly worse than stocks and precious metals. Some analyses point out that Bitcoin's extreme weakness signals two things: the market catalysts in 2025 failed to meet expectations, and the new catalysts for 2026 have yet to appear.
In early 2025, the “Trump rally” was in full swing, with relaxed cryptocurrency regulations and the U.S. Bitcoin strategy widely promoted, and spot ETF fund flows continuously hitting new records. But this excitement has gradually faded. Currently, the only remaining bullish catalyst is the interest rate cut cycle, which is considered favorable for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates consecutively in September, October, and December 2025, but Bitcoin has fallen a total of 24% since the September 2025 rate hike meeting.
As Bitcoin bulls start clutching at straws for potential bullish catalysts, rational traders are already seeing warning signs. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) once held large positions in cryptocurrencies at market peaks, but now several DAT companies' mNAV (adjusted net asset value) has fallen below 1. CoinShares noted in early December 2025 that the DAT bubble has actually burst in many aspects. This could trigger a major chain reaction in the crypto market, with some companies forced to sell holdings in a liquidity-starved market, which the current market cannot handle. Strategy CEO Phong Le recently hinted that if the mNAV falls below 1.0, the company might sell Bitcoin. However, it is worth noting that this tech company is still raising billions of dollars to buy Bitcoin, so the above scenario remains an extreme hypothetical.