The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is only about 15%, and relying on this to boost the market is basically a lost cause.
However, there is a good reference — the "January Effect" does exist historically.
Data shows that the stock market's performance in January often outperforms other months. The logic behind this is similar to the Christmas rally: tax incentives, year-end bonuses, and market psychological changes brought by the holidays.
In the past, this phenomenon was mainly reflected in small-cap stocks because retail investors tend to be more concentrated during this time, making it easier to form a collective force.
So, it might be worth paying more attention to stocks that are trending heavily on Reddit discussions; you might find some opportunities.
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ProposalDetective
· 3h ago
15% chance of rate cut, basically a probability of trailing behind, retail investors shouldn't rely on this to turn things around.
I've looked into the January effect; small-cap stocks do tend to bounce, and the year-end bonus money has to go somewhere.
The popular stocks on Reddit are indeed worth a look, but be careful of herd mentality.
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GateUser-44a00d6c
· 4h ago
15% chance of interest rate cut? Then just pretend it doesn't exist. It's more reliable to watch the January effect.
Retail investors banding together in small-cap stocks are indeed prone to volatility this time. Keep a close eye on those hot discussions on Reddit.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is only about 15%, and relying on this to boost the market is basically a lost cause.
However, there is a good reference — the "January Effect" does exist historically.
Data shows that the stock market's performance in January often outperforms other months. The logic behind this is similar to the Christmas rally: tax incentives, year-end bonuses, and market psychological changes brought by the holidays.
In the past, this phenomenon was mainly reflected in small-cap stocks because retail investors tend to be more concentrated during this time, making it easier to form a collective force.
So, it might be worth paying more attention to stocks that are trending heavily on Reddit discussions; you might find some opportunities.