Recently, the most common questions heard in discussions are: Does Bitcoin still have room to rise? Should I cut losses on Ethereum? Is this market currently a bear market or a bull market? Seeing everyone tangled up, I think it's necessary to have a good talk about the true face of this round of market行情.

My judgment is very clear: this is not the beginning of a bear market, but a correction phase in the middle of a bull market. From a technical perspective, this wave of volatility will last at most another 2 months, after which the market will give clear directional signals. Without further ado, I will share three core judgment signals. Mastering these can help avoid most people's common misconceptions.

**Core Market Logic Analysis**

The oscillation has been starting from the bottom for over a month. Why hasn't a clear direction been chosen after such a long time? The key lies in the short-term balance of bullish and bearish forces. Major funds are currently digesting previously trapped chips and profit-taking through sideways movement.

From a weekly chart perspective, the main decline phase has already ended. The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, and currently, the market is mainly waiting for volume to follow — this is a typical accumulation feature. On the daily chart level, the market maintains a strong sideways pattern, with solid support below. Every time there is a correction to a key support level, funds are absorbed. This kind of movement is completely different from the characteristics of a bear market. A bear market would show repeated breakdowns and support levels being continuously breached; the current situation is clearly different.

**Three Major Signals Determine Market Direction**

Now, let's get to the main part. As long as two of the following three signals appear, the subsequent direction can be basically confirmed.

**Signal 1: Volume Performance**. If one day there is a significant increase in volume along with a rise that breaks through the upper boundary of the sideways consolidation, it indicates that the bulls have gathered and are starting to launch, and the probability of an upward breakout will be high. Conversely, if there is a volume surge accompanied by a decline that breaks below the lower boundary, caution is needed as a potential stage top may be forming. Volume is the most difficult indicator to deceive; the appearance of increased volume often signals real fund activity.

**Signal 2: Breakthrough of Short-Cycle Patterns**. Focus on the 4-hour and 8-hour timeframes. Once these two cycles form clear head-and-shoulders bottom or double-top patterns, accompanied by volume, it’s time for the market to make a decision. These patterns in short cycles can often provide answers more quickly, much faster than waiting for long cycles.

**Signal 3: Performance of Key Moving Averages**. The convergence and divergence of short-term moving averages (10-day, 20-day) and long-term moving averages (60-day, 120-day) reflect the market’s activity level. When short-term averages start to strongly break through long-term averages, it indicates that short-term funds are leading the direction; otherwise, it suggests the market is still in a buildup phase.

All three signals actually revolve around one core logic: when will funds choose a clear direction? Once that choice appears, the entire market will become relatively clearer. Currently, we are just waiting for that moment. No need to rush, and no need to be pessimistic.