#数字资产动态追踪 In 2026, the Federal Reserve sent a warning to the market with a dot plot right at the start of the year.

Interest rates are anchored at 3.50%-3.75%. Since the symbolic 25 basis point cut at the end of last year, there have been no further moves, making the stance even clearer—given the robust economy, why rush to loosen policy?

The data is in front of us, and the signals for December are already quite clear: there may only be a 25 basis point cut for the whole year. Inflation remains sticky, stuck at 2.4% and unwilling to go down, while GDP growth has actually surged to 2.3%. The combination of steady economic growth and high prices leaves no room for dovish factions to maneuver.

Wall Street has already split into several camps. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are more optimistic, betting on two 25 basis point rate cuts in March and June. JPMorgan is the most conservative, even betting on only one rate cut for the entire year. But there are extreme voices arguing—some call for "zero rate cuts in 2026," while others fantasize about a 150 basis point cut, and the gap is huge.

But there’s a variable that cannot be ignored: Powell’s term ends in May. If the dove camp’s representative, Harker, takes over, the entire policy tone could sharply change.

The key event is the January FOMC meeting. The new dot plot will not only determine the near-term interest rate trajectory but also set the liquidity tone for 2026. The stock market, crypto market, and lending market all need to buckle up—an upcoming wave of volatility is brewing.

Ultimately, the sticky inflation and resilient economy suggest that the Fed is unlikely to relax its vigilance in the short term. Without a significant rise in unemployment or a sharp drop in inflation, "slow rate cuts" will remain the main theme. Watch the median direction in the dot plot—if it stays flat or rises, it indicates continued hawkish control; if it cuts more than expected, a dovish rally could ignite instantly.

Operationally, don’t be too aggressive; wait until the dot plot settles before making decisions. In a year of liquidity turning points, opportunities often hide in the expectations gap.