Bitcoin has already broken free from the traditional 4-year cycle constraints.

For a long time, the industry has had a consensus on Bitcoin's price movement pattern: experiencing a complete cycle approximately every 4 years—halving events trigger a new rally, followed by a peak, correction, and then entering the next cycle. This pattern has been repeatedly validated across multiple cycles and has become a basis for many investors' strategies.

But now it seems this model is failing. With the deep involvement of institutional capital, the launch of spot ETFs, and the maturation of market structure, Bitcoin's price movements are beginning to diverge from a simple time cycle framework. The market's driving factors are becoming more complex—intertwining macro liquidity, policy expectations, institutional allocation demands, and other multidimensional factors.

What does this mean? Investors need to upgrade their understanding of Bitcoin cycles. Over-reliance on historical cycle points may lead to decision biases. As market rules change, adapting to new analytical frameworks becomes an essential skill.