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Just as we step into the first week of 2026, the crypto market has given us a nice "New Year’s gift."
As of January 2nd, the overall market rebound has been quite evident—Bitcoin rose about 1.3% to surpass $88,678, Ethereum followed with a roughly 2.8% increase to $3,020, but the real eye-catchers are the altcoins, with PEPE soaring over 21%, and DOGE jumping more than 8%. The total market capitalization also steadily increased, climbing 1.2% to reach $3.08 trillion.
So, how did this wave of rebound come about? Let’s break it down.
**January Effect + Tax Loss Reversal Strategy**
January is a "reflow window" for traditional funds. Many investors sold off assets in December last year to offset taxes, and as a new year begins, they naturally re-enter the market to replenish their positions. This creates a steady buying support.
**Improved Institutional Fund Flow Rhythm**
The flow of funds into ETFs has stabilized, and institutional actions have become more rational. Coupled with retail investors on-chain eager to "buy the dip" at low levels, the market can naturally hold up.
**On-Chain Sentiment Is Recovering**
Whales are quietly accumulating coins, and large outflows from exchanges have decreased significantly, indicating selling pressure is easing. More intuitively, the Fear & Greed Index has risen from "Extreme Fear" to 28, showing market sentiment is clearly warming.
**Healthy Deleveraging in the Derivatives Market**
Open interest in futures has fallen sharply, and liquidation amounts have plummeted 46% to $126 million. This means leveraged positions chasing high prices have decreased, making the market more stable and less likely to be knocked down by a single large red candle.
There's really no innovation here. A 1.3% increase in BTC is worth bragging about. Altcoins are a bit interesting, but how long this rebound can last is still uncertain.
Institutional funds are "rational"? Laughable. When have they ever been rational? They’re just continuing to cut us.
The sharp drop in liquidation volume sounds good, but did the leverage positions really decrease or just shift elsewhere? Not quite sure in my heart.