Recently, many people have been discussing the risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds. I believe this issue needs to be viewed dialectically.

Currently, the U.S. national debt is approximately 38 trillion USD. What does this mean? The total stablecoin issuance is only 300 billion USD. At the current interest rate levels, just the interest on the national debt costs over a trillion USD per year. Based on the current stablecoin issuance scale, it is far from enough to fill this gap.

My personal judgment is that the reason Trump repeatedly emphasizes the importance of the crypto market is actually driven by practical considerations—trying to alleviate the pressure of the national debt. How to do that? By developing the crypto market, allowing stablecoin issuers to continuously purchase Treasury bonds and issue stablecoins, thereby diversifying debt risk and helping to lower borrowing rates. This logic is quite straightforward.

Conversely, if the market has no real demand for Treasury bonds and is only passively servicing debt, the situation will only worsen. A large debt crisis will follow, and borrowing rates will skyrocket. Those who have borrowed from online lending platforms know this principle—when you usually have enough money, banks lower interest rates to attract customers; when you're truly short of cash, they immediately raise interest rates or even cut off loans. The same applies to the Treasury bond market.

In the short term, the Treasury bond issue will definitely impact market rhythm and may even drag down the entire market. But in the long run, the crypto market should continue to rise. At least, it needs to develop to a scale capable of supporting the repayment of interest on the national debt. Based on this logic, there is a market prediction that Bitcoin will break through 200,000 USD by 2026, which coincides with the critical threshold of a trillion-dollar stablecoin issuance scale.

This year, about 10 trillion USD of Treasury bonds are expected to mature, relying on rolling over new debt to survive. The performance of the crypto market will become crucial. If stablecoin issuance can maintain growth momentum, and the ecosystem applications continue to expand while market bubbles are gradually deflated, then 2026 could indeed see a spectacular growth phase.

Of course, for a superpower like the United States, the capacity to bear pressure is definitely there, and short-term problems are unlikely. But who will ultimately take on this debt bubble? That’s a matter for the future.