Polymarket is pricing a 77% probability that Strategy (MSTR) stock will be removed from the MSCI index. The stock price has declined by 66% over the past six months, falling from $457 to $152. The underlying reason is that MSCI may classify companies with more than 50% of their assets in digital assets as a “fund” rather than an equity. If removed, passive index funds would be forced to sell, with estimated outflows of $2.8–8.8 billion according to JPMorgan, creating significant selling pressure. This could indirectly impact Bitcoin, as Strategy is the largest publicly listed holder of BTC. The effect may also spill over to other crypto-related companies, such as Bitmine with exposure to ETH. The final decision date is January 15, 2026.

The market is currently pricing in a 77% probability that Strategy (MSTR) will be removed from the MSCI index, with this probability rising sharply over a short period of time. This is not emotional speculation, but rather a market-driven assessment based on both technical factors and legal or structural considerations related to asset classification.

From a price perspective, MSTR has undergone a very deep correction, declining by approximately 66% in just six months, from a peak near $457 to around $150. The weekly chart shows a clear downtrend, with a persistent lower-high and lower-low structure, reflecting systemic selling pressure rather than short-term volatility.

At the core of the issue is how MSCI may reclassify Strategy. With more than 50% of the company’s total assets held in digital assets, primarily Bitcoin, MSCI may view Strategy as closer to an investment fund than an operating equity company. If this scenario materializes, MSTR would no longer qualify for inclusion in MSCI Equity indices.

The most significant consequence lies in passive capital flows. Once removed from MSCI, index funds and ETFs tracking MSCI would be mechanically forced to sell MSTR. According to JPMorgan estimates, the resulting outflows could range from $2.8 billion to $8.8 billion, creating substantial forced selling pressure over a short period of time, a dynamic to which markets typically react negatively.

The impact would not be limited to Strategy’s stock alone. As MSTR is the largest publicly listed holder of Bitcoin, any shock related to the stock could indirectly spill over to BTC, particularly through sentiment and the narrative of MSTR as an institutional proxy for Bitcoin exposure. Moreover, a domino effect could extend to other crypto-related companies with similar structures, such as Bitmine with exposure to ETH, or other publicly listed firms holding crypto as a primary asset.

All attention is now focused on the final decision date of January 15, 2026. Leading up to this point, volatility in MSTR, crypto-related equities, and even Bitcoin itself is likely to remain elevated. This is a structural risk event rather than a short-term price story, and investors should monitor it closely rather than viewing MSTR simply as a technology stock or a straightforward Bitcoin proxy.