#美联储回购协议计划 Are the whales really accumulating coins? On-chain data might be about to prove us wrong

Recently, the story of "whales疯狂 buying Bitcoin" circulating in the crypto circle might not be that simple.

On January 3rd, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, exposed this bubble—so-called whale accumulation signals actually come from a routine exchange operation: address consolidation. Exchanges gather scattered holdings into a few large addresses, which the market then interprets as "whales疯狂囤币."

It's all about the details. Excluding exchange addresses, the actual Bitcoin holdings of whales not only haven't increased but have actually shrunk. Even those addresses holding between 100 and 1000 BTC (including some ETF positions) haven't shown the expected increase in balance. Numbers speak for themselves, and they are not indicating growth.

What’s even more revealing is the "real demand" indicator for Bitcoin. On a monthly basis, this number is tightening; on an annual scale, the growth has clearly slowed down, and it’s approaching negative territory. Demand is shifting, yet the market still focuses on price fluctuations.

Julio bluntly states: The market is used to defining bull and bear markets by price volatility, but that’s fundamentally wrong—true anchoring should be based on real demand. A deeper reflection is: if a valuation model increasingly marks Bitcoin as "undervalued," don’t cling to changing market perceptions; instead, question whether the model itself needs updating.

This perspective indeed cools down the recent hot "whale行情." On-chain data is right there; players need to understand the true supply and demand logic—stories and imagination won’t last long. Ultimately, it’s about reconciling with reality. $BTC