Federal Reserve January Outlook: Only a 16.6% Chance of Rate Cuts, How Should the Market Respond?

【Crypto World】According to the latest data from CME “Federal Reserve Watch,” expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in January are adjusting. The data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 16.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level is as high as 83.4%.

This data indicates that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a wait-and-see stance in the short term. The direction of interest rate policy has a direct impact on the volatility of cryptocurrency prices—during rate hike cycles, risk assets come under pressure; whereas expectations of rate cuts often boost market sentiment. The current 83.4% “hold steady” probability suggests that investors should prepare for a sustained high-interest-rate environment, which will undoubtedly exert a suppressive effect on risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market.