The US Dollar Index continues to face pressure; technical analysis of the four major commodities | Market overview for December 24

Federal Reserve Policy Expectations Shift, US Dollar Index Faces Difficulties

The US third-quarter GDP preliminary annualized growth rate reached 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%, marking the strongest performance in two years. Core PCE increased by 2.9% quarter-over-quarter, maintaining the expected level. These strong data points should have supported the dollar, but due to uncertainties surrounding Trump’s policy stance, expectations of Fed rate cuts were impacted, causing a reversal in the dollar index trend.

The US dollar index fell 0.37% on Tuesday, touching a low of 97.74, declining for two consecutive trading days. More notably, the dollar index has effectively broken below the key support level of 98.0 and is currently around 97.85. With the Christmas holiday approaching and market liquidity shrinking, short- to medium-term downside risks cannot be ignored.

Technical Outlook: If the dollar index cannot recover above 98.0, a larger downward move could be triggered. Investors should focus on the 95.2 level, which will serve as a critical point for determining the future direction.

Copper Breaks Key Levels, Uptrend Confirmed

LEM copper surged over 1% on December 24, reaching a high of 12276 USD. The MACD indicator shows a strong bullish signal, with market participation clearly increasing. The formation of higher highs indicates that a new rally has begun, with a strong trend continuity.

If copper can hold above 12000 USD, the subsequent rebound target could be around 13000 USD, which would validate the current upward channel.

Gold Breaks Through 4500, Buying Space Activated

Gold rose slightly by 0.12% on December 24, breaking through the key psychological level of 4500 USD, with a high of 4525.8 USD. Technical patterns indicate that gold is in a new upward phase, with higher highs suggesting the upward channel remains intact.

If gold can stabilize above 4500 USD, there is potential for further gains toward 4620 USD and even 4770 USD. Traders should pay special attention to the January 6 timeframe, which could become a market turning point.

Crude Oil Shows Rebound Signal, Correction Underway

WTI crude oil rose 0.9% on Tuesday, reaching a high of 59.56 USD. After more than half a year of decline and consolidation, the AO momentum indicator has started to strengthen, with three consecutive days of gains suggesting an increasing likelihood of a correction rebound.

Key judgment: If crude oil can break through and hold above 59.0 USD, it may continue to rebound toward 61.5 USD and even 64.5 USD. Conversely, if it falls below 57.0 USD support, the decline could accelerate.

Summary: In the macro context, the pressure on the US dollar index has increased, boosting the attractiveness of commodities. Copper, gold, and oil all show varying degrees of rebound signals. Investors should closely monitor whether the dollar index can hold above 98.0 and whether the technical support levels of each commodity remain effective to develop more precise trading strategies.