#预测市场 I was deeply moved by Vitalik's recent perspective — prediction markets are like the "detox" for social media.

Imagine every day being flooded with exaggerated predictions: some event "will definitely happen," certain trends are "unstoppable." What's the problem? No one is responsible for these claims. But prediction markets are different; real money is at stake. When you want to bet, your mindset instantly becomes more rational — you have to genuinely believe that something will happen before you dare to put your money on the line.

Vitalik's example is very vivid: someone on social media claims that a UK civil war is "inevitable," but in the Polymarket prediction market, the probability is only 3%. How big is the gap? That’s the power of the incentive mechanism. Truth is rewarded, lies come at a cost, and the entire system naturally tends toward accuracy.

This actually reflects the core value of Web3 — shaping a more honest information ecosystem through economic incentives. No longer relying on a central authority to judge truth or falsehood; instead, market participants vote with real funds. Prediction markets are changing the way we perceive the world, shifting from emotion-driven to probability-based thinking.

If you haven't experienced prediction markets yet, it's really worth exploring in depth. This might be one of the most elegant cases of decentralized transformation of traditional information systems.