#预测市场 The core value of prediction markets lies in their economic incentive mechanism—real money betting forces participants to be responsible for their opinions, which is fundamentally different from the zero-cost expression on social media. Looking at the data on Polymarket makes this very clear: Elon Musk claimed that a civil war in the UK is "inevitable," yet the market only assigns a 3% probability. This 3% is also considered too high by Vitalik, as some irrational bettors have inflated the number.

Looking at Bitcoin forecasts— the probability of reaching $100,000 again within the year has dropped to 10%, a figure much more cautious than the optimistic sentiment on social media. The spread reflects the cost of information: telling the truth can make money, lying will lose money, and the incentive mechanism for participants is completely reversed.

This also explains why prediction markets are suitable as a reference for investment research and judgment. It’s not that prediction markets are always accurate, but their pricing mechanism is closer to the true probability. When social media is filled with emotional opinions, data from prediction markets can help calmly identify the signal-to-noise ratio. Subsequent tracking of the probability changes of major prediction assets, through dynamic adjustments based on market consensus, can help capture shifts in on-chain and off-chain public opinion.