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Last Tuesday, gold prices continued to strengthen, reaching a recent high. Market analysts pointed out that this rally is mainly driven by two major factors: on one hand, Federal Reserve officials have been releasing relatively dovish statements, reinforcing market expectations of at least two rate cuts this year; on the other hand, geopolitical uncertainties are also boosting risk aversion sentiment.
Federal Reserve official Kashkari recently mentioned that although inflation is gradually declining, there is a risk of a "sudden rise" in the unemployment rate—this statement is essentially paving the way for a policy shift. The employment data to be released this Friday is particularly critical, as investors are waiting for this report to confirm the economic trend.
Some market researchers noted that the current dovish expectations have not fundamentally shaken market perceptions, but they are indeed reinforcing a trend—against the backdrop of a low-interest-rate cycle combined with geopolitical risks, assets that do not generate fixed income often attract funds for risk aversion. In other words, in the current environment of de-globalization and increasing economic uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets like gold remain the preferred choice for investors. This will also have a ripple effect on the overall sentiment of risk asset markets.