Recently, Bitcoin has experienced a rally, but it has also created two notable CME gaps—around $90,000-$91,000 and $88,000-$90,000. Many are beginning to worry that these gaps will be filled, especially if the price falls below the $88,000 level, which could trigger a "narrative reversal" in the market. At that point, high-leverage investors could face tough times.

Why do these gaps appear? Essentially, it's because US stock markets stop trading on weekends, while Bitcoin spot trading continues uninterrupted, creating a price discrepancy. Although many say "gaps will always be filled," this is not an absolute rule. The key is when enough traders focus on the same price level, that level becomes a zone of order accumulation and stop-loss clustering.

Options market data also confirms this. According to data, around December 31, the market's implied volatility for the next month is expected to be between 40% and 58%. Interestingly, this contrasts with the increasing short positions in options observed in late November. This shift may indicate that the market has already priced in expectations of significant volatility.

Another noteworthy point is the change in capital flows. Several outflows occurred from Bitcoin spot ETFs between mid and late December (from the 18th to the 29th), but a rebound happened in early January. This change in capital flow rhythm often accompanies price volatility and highlights the significance of technical indicators like gaps.

So, based on the current situation, what might happen to Bitcoin next? There are roughly three possibilities.

First: The price quickly stabilizes in the $90,000-$91,000 range after a sharp pullback, and after leveraged positions are liquidated, spot buying resumes, market sentiment adjusts, and altcoins rebound along with Bitcoin.

Second: A deep correction occurs, dropping below $90,000 and heading straight to $88,000. In this scenario, high-risk altcoins like meme coins could suffer, potentially triggering a large-scale deleveraging and severely damaging market confidence.

Third: Supported by a strong macroeconomic environment and an upward trend, Bitcoin holds its current levels or even pushes higher, breaking the market's "gap must be filled" consensus.

Finally, it's worth noting that CME gaps are ultimately just indicators of market liquidity and sentiment, not absolute rules. The macroeconomic environment and capital flow rhythms have long surpassed the significance of technical gaps themselves. Instead of obsessing over whether gaps will be filled, it's better to pay attention to actual capital movements and market sentiment shifts.