The New Year Trading Week defies expectations: bad news is actually boosting stocks, bonds, and gold ratios. What is the underlying logic behind this cross-asset rebound?

Let's first look at the data from the US side. December manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, continuing to hover below the recession line for 10 consecutive months. Orders are drying up, and companies are collectively defensive, starting to clear inventories. On the surface, it looks grim, but in reality, the market is sensing a signal of interest rate cuts. The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.16% in response, and options traders are collectively betting that rate cuts will come by March. The logic chain is simple and straightforward: the worse the economy → the more the central bank needs to loosen → asset prices are actually supported. The problem is that this kind of one-sided betting is very fragile; if Friday’s non-farm payrolls show that employment is still doing well, the market could instantly reverse.

The situation in Venezuela has opened up a different script. After the regime change, Trump announced plans to restructure the local energy industry. WTI oil prices responded indifferently—production accounts for less than 1%, so the impact is small. But this change has altered the heavy oil supply structure, causing asphalt spot prices to surge. Major oil companies like Chevron are happy to see the increase, with the logic being: not drilling now is okay, because future infrastructure rebuilding rights and resource access rights are essentially intangible options value.

On the other side, Goldman Sachs has issued a bullish forecast for A-shares—potentially 15-20% gains from 2026 to 2027. The driving force is the gradual recovery of corporate profits. Whether this optimism is genuine, the market is still weighing and reconsidering.