#美联储FOMC会议 Is a contract the dream factory for arbitrageurs, or just a test paper for those with poor understanding?

2000 yuan, partying until dawn, account wiped out at midnight. The obsession that "interest rate cuts should lead to rises" was publicly shattered by the market before a key meeting—never gamble on news, first learn to respect price volatility.

Only later did I realize: contracts are fundamentally about judging your cognitive biases one by one. I've seen too many people, hearing "interest rate cut expectations," go all-in with 5000 yuan principal, only to be liquidated the next day; some bottom-fished and refused to sell, holding onto 8000 yuan until it dropped to 1500, then stubbornly refusing to sell, ending up completely wiped out. Who survives these situations? Cold-blooded to the point of fear—99% of the time waiting, only firing when the critical point is confirmed. I’ve caught rebounds based on macro logic: tried 300 yuan when the Fed hinted at easing, added another 700 before it actually landed, and within 12 days, it skyrocketed from 1500 to 8500, all thanks to discipline.

Now, when watching the macro market, I strictly adhere to three bottom lines:

① Single trade loss should not exceed 1% of total funds (with 5000 yuan, only accept a 50 yuan loss at most)

② Only trade once before and after major data releases

③ Lock in profits when floating gains reach 20%, avoid greed

Contracts are most tempting and most deadly at the early stage of a trend. They force you to sharpen your macro sense and treat risk control as a religious belief. Don’t be brainwashed by the phrase "this wave is unusual," because to bite into a rebound, you must ensure you’re not thrown out by false signals. Only traders who survive truly have the right to understand the meaning of cycles.