#以太坊大户持仓变化 RAVE has clearly entered a downtrend on the 1-hour chart, with the price at 0.32728 already breaking through all moving average supports. MA7 and MA30 are diverging downward, indicating a stable bearish arrangement, with medium-term declines showing strong resilience.

From the indicator perspective, both MACD's DIF and DEA are below the zero line, and the histogram bars remain negative, suggesting that the bearish momentum is still ongoing with no clear signs of exhaustion. The Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, and the price is repeatedly testing the lower band at 0.30698. Multiple penetrations indicate a severe oversold condition, but whether this support can hold is uncertain, with a high probability of being broken.

In terms of volume, recent declines have been accompanied by increased trading activity, especially during the sharp drop in the early hours of January 6, where volume exceeded the 5-day average, indicating heavy selling pressure. Although volume has decreased somewhat now, the sellers' willingness remains, and buying interest appears somewhat strained.

The key observation points are divided into three parts:

1. Whether the lower support at 0.30698 can hold; current conditions suggest it is likely to be broken.

2. If a rebound occurs, 0.32992 (MA7) and 0.33533 (previous high) will serve as resistance points. A rebound with low volume might instead signal a potential shorting opportunity.

3. Only if volume surges and pushes above 0.36919 (middle band) and stabilizes above 0.37516 (MA30), coupled with a bullish crossover in MACD crossing above the zero line, can there be hope for a trend reversal. Currently, such signals have not appeared.

In trading strategy, avoid trying to bottom-fish; it’s safer to follow the trend and maintain a bearish outlook. During rebounds, if volume does not support the move, it’s time to reduce positions or consider reverse operations. In a weak market environment, support levels are easily broken, so stay alert. For future opportunities in altcoins, focus on assets with volume breakthroughs to capture explosive gains.