2026 Market Outlook: Where Will Gold, Bitcoin, Equities, and Other Assets Head? Leading Banks Reveal Their Forecasts

The Safe Haven Rally Continues: Precious Metals Set for Another Strong Year

Gold and silver emerged as 2025’s standout performers, with gold rallying 60% — its best year since 1979 — fueled by Fed rate cuts, sustained central bank demand, and geopolitical uncertainty. As these structural tailwinds persist into 2026, precious metals are poised to extend their bull run.

The World Gold Council projects gold could appreciate another 5-15% in 2026 under baseline conditions. More bullish scenarios — marked by economic slowdown and aggressive monetary easing — could push gold 15-30% higher, potentially reaching the USD 4,500-5,000 range that major banks are targeting. Goldman Sachs specifically forecasts USD 4,900 per ounce, supported by central bank accumulation and ETF inflows. Bank of America goes further, predicting USD 5,000/oz as expanded fiscal deficits and rising government debt provide sustained support for the yellow metal.

Silver’s outperformance has been even more dramatic. Supply deficits continue to tighten the global market, with industrial demand robust and investment inflows accelerating. The Silver Institute warns that structural undersupply will likely persist through 2026, creating tailwinds for prices. UBS has raised its target to USD 58-60/oz, with upside potential to USD 65/oz, echoing Bank of America’s USD 65/oz forecast.

Crypto’s New Paradigm: Bitcoin and Ethereum Navigate Divergent Paths

Bitcoin finished 2025 nearly flat despite reaching all-time highs during the year. Currently trading around $94.37K, the cryptocurrency faces conflicting narratives heading into 2026. Standard Chartered revised its price target downward from USD 200,000 to USD 150,000, citing expectations that government crypto treasury programs may slow purchases — though ETF inflows should remain supportive. Bernstein aligns with this view, projecting USD 150,000 for 2026 and USD 200,000 by 2027, arguing that Bitcoin has broken its traditional four-year cycle and entered an elongated bull phase.

However, Morgan Stanley offers the contrarian view, maintaining that the four-year cycle framework still holds and the current bull market is approaching exhaustion. This disagreement highlights a critical question: Has Bitcoin’s cyclical pattern fundamentally changed, or does reversion await?

Ethereum presents a different story. Trading near $3.30K with 4.79% daily gains, ETH experienced sharper volatility than Bitcoin in 2025 but ended the year essentially flat. Looking forward, institutions are notably constructive. JPMorgan emphasizes Ethereum’s critical role in the tokenization wave — a thesis that could reshape the next crypto supercycle. Tom Lee, a prominent figure in digital assets, forecasts ETH reaching USD 20,000 in 2026, arguing that Ethereum’s 2025 weakness represents capitulation and that substantial gains lie ahead.

U.S. Equities: AI Spending Drives Continued Momentum

The Nasdaq 100 delivered a solid 22% return in 2025, maintaining its three-year winning streak and outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% gain. The catalyst remains clear: AI-driven capital expenditure from hyperscale operators.

JPMorgan highlights that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are expected to maintain elevated capex throughout the multi-year cycle, with aggregate spending potentially reaching hundreds of billions of dollars by 2026. This investment torrent should continue supporting semiconductor and infrastructure plays like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom. JPMorgan’s base case targets S&P 500 approaching 7,500 by end-2026, while Deutsche Bank presents more optimistic scenarios pointing toward 8,000, contingent on robust earnings growth. Extrapolating from these S&P targets suggests the Nasdaq 100 could surpass 27,000 points.

Currency Markets Show Deep Divides Among Institutions

The dollar’s performance will prove pivotal for 2026, with forex markets revealing stark disagreements among major banks.

EUR/USD posted its strongest year since 2015, rallying 13% as the greenback weakened. JPMorgan and Nomura expect the trend to continue, targeting 1.20 by year-end 2026. Bank of America is even more bullish, forecasting 1.22. However, Morgan Stanley warns of a reversal risk: after reaching 1.23 in H1, EUR/USD could retreat to 1.16 in the second half as U.S. economic outperformance reasserts itself.

USD/JPY dynamics are equally contested, with forecasts ranging from 140 to 164. After declining roughly 1% in 2025, the yen faces competing pressures. JPMorgan and Barclays believe Bank of Japan rate hike expectations are already priced in, while fiscal expansion may weigh on the yen, supporting a move toward 164. Nomura counters that narrowing interest rate differentials will erode yen carry trade appeal, and any U.S. macro weakness could trigger rapid yen appreciation toward 140. This 24-handle divergence reflects fundamental uncertainty about both central bank trajectories and the 200000 yen equivalent strength of U.S. dollar momentum.

Energy Markets Face Downside Pressure from Supply Oversupply

Crude oil fell nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ restored production and U.S. output continued climbing. For 2026, the consensus leans bearish, with primary risk tilted toward oversupply.

Goldman Sachs outlines a scenario where WTI averages around USD 52 per barrel and Brent approximately USD 56 per barrel. JPMorgan similarly flags downside risks, with WTI potentially averaging near USD 54 and Brent around USD 58, contingent on sustained supply surpluses and moderating global demand growth. Few institutions present bullish oil cases, making energy the most consensus-bearish asset class heading into 2026.

The Bottom Line

2026 shapes up as a year of continued divergence across asset classes. Safe havens like gold and silver should thrive amid monetary and geopolitical uncertainty, while crypto markets remain split between structural bull believers and cycle reversion skeptics. U.S. equities appear positioned for further gains on AI capex momentum, but currency markets warn that dollar strength may not persist indefinitely. Energy, meanwhile, faces structural headwinds from production capacity and moderate demand growth.