As 2026 Unfolds: Which Assets Will Rally and Which Could Stumble? Leading Banks Share Their Verdicts

After witnessing wild swings across commodities, crypto, and currencies in 2025, the investment world is bracing for what could be an even more pivotal year ahead. Here’s what the Street’s top names are positioning for.

The Safe Haven Play: Precious Metals Poised for Strength

Gold had an exceptional 2025, surging 60% — its best year since 1979. But here’s the thing: the World Gold Council and major banks believe the party is far from over.

Goldman Sachs has set a USD 4,900 per ounce target for year-end 2026, while Bank of America is even more aggressive at USD 5,000/oz. The bullish case rests on three pillars: anticipated Fed rate cuts, sustained central bank buying, and ongoing geopolitical friction. In a base case, gold could climb another 5–15%. If we hit a severe recession with emergency Fed easing, a 15–30% rally is in play.

Silver is stealing the spotlight though. After massively outpacing gold in 2025 due to tight supply and industrial demand, the Silver Institute warns of a structural deficit that will likely persist through 2026. UBS has raised its silver target to USD 58–60/oz, with USD 65/oz possible. Bank of America agrees on the USD 65 level — making silver a potential outperformer relative to gold.

Crypto: The Divergence Deepens

Bitcoin ended 2025 nearly flat after a dramatic rally and pullback. For 2026, there’s a fascinating disagreement unfolding.

Standard Chartered downgraded its BTC target from USD 200,000 to USD 150,000, citing reduced expectations for corporate treasury accumulation. Bernstein echoes that USD 150,000 is realistic for 2026, though they see USD 200,000 by 2027. Their thesis: Bitcoin has broken its traditional four-year cycle and entered a prolonged bull phase.

Morgan Stanley begs to differ, insisting the cycle still matters and warning the rally is maturing. With current BTC trading around $94.37K and up 1.73% over 24 hours, we’ll see who calls it right.

Ethereum presents a different opportunity. Despite finishing 2025 flat (and more volatile than Bitcoin), institutions are warming to ETH’s prospects. JPMorgan highlights tokenization’s transformative potential and its reliance on Ethereum infrastructure. Tom Lee from BitMain is outright bullish, forecasting ETH at USD 20,000 in 2026, claiming a bottom was hit in 2025. Current ETH sits at $3.30K with a sharp +4.79% daily gain — suggesting momentum may already be building.

Equities: Riding the AI Wave Higher

The Nasdaq 100 delivered a stellar 22% gain in 2025, and consensus sees the rally extending in 2026. JPMorgan highlights that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta will likely maintain aggressive capex spending — potentially several hundred billion cumulatively — to fuel AI infrastructure buildout. This supports mega-cap holdings like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

JPMorgan’s bull case has the S&P 500 touching 7,500, while Deutsche Bank is even more optimistic at 8,000 by year-end. Extrapolating to the Nasdaq 100, 27,000+ is in play if earnings cooperate.

Currency Crosswinds: Not All Moves Are Positive

Here’s where divergence really shows up. EUR/USD surged 13% in 2025 — nearly an eight-year high — on U.S. dollar weakness. JPMorgan and Nomura see EUR/USD at 1.20 by end-2026, while Bank of America targets 1.22. Morgan Stanley warns of a twist: EUR/USD could hit 1.23 in H1 before retreating to 1.16 in H2 as the U.S. economy outperforms.

For context, broader currency moves matter everywhere. As the dollar weakens (supporting gold and EM assets), crosses like 7 USD to GBP also reflect that depreciation pressure — a useful metric for tracking dollar direction across various pairs.

USD/JPY saw conflicting calls. JPMorgan expects USD/JPY at 164 (bullish yen weakness), betting BOJ rate hike concerns are already priced in. Nomura disagrees, seeing only 140 as carry trades unwind and rates compress. Citigroup sides with Nomura’s bearish USD/JPY view.

The Wildcard: Oil’s Downside Risk

Crude oil tanked nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ boosted supply and U.S. production climbed. The consensus for 2026? Downside skew on oversupply.

Goldman Sachs sketches a bearish scenario with WTI averaging USD 52/barrel and Brent at USD 56. JPMorgan similarly warns of USD 54 (WTI) and USD 58 (Brent) averages if supply stays elevated and demand growth softens. Unlike commodities and crypto, energy looks like the laggard in 2026.

The Bottom Line

2026 shaping up to be a year of selective optimism: precious metals, certain crypto plays, U.S. equities, and a weaker dollar are consensus. Oil and possibly the USD/JPY pair face headwinds. The real question is timing — early 2026 could offer strong risk-on momentum, but Q3–Q4 reversals aren’t out of the question if economic data disappoints.