Can Solana Break Through $145? The Convergence of Institutional Demand and Trader Conviction Suggests Yes

Solana (SOL) is staging a compelling rally this week, and the factors propelling it higher are far more structured than typical momentum-chasing. At $139.64 (up 3.09% in 24 hours), the token is within striking distance of the $145 technical ceiling—a level that’s become shorthand for what comes next in the near-term narrative. The interesting part isn’t the price alone; it’s the alignment of three distinct market signals that rarely occur simultaneously: steady institutional accumulation, aggressive derivative positioning, and improving on-chain health metrics.

The Institutional Reversion

The first flag worth paying attention to is the behavioral shift among larger capital pools. Solana-focused ETF products have notched four consecutive days of positive net inflows, with Tuesday’s intake reaching $16.54 million—the strongest single-day injection since early December. What matters here is the consistency, not just the headline figure. After weeks of lukewarm or outright negative flows, this streak signals that institutions are re-entering the conversation rather than sitting on the sidelines.

This matters because ETF flows tend to be slower-moving and more deliberate than spot trading. When they turn positive for this many consecutive sessions, it usually reflects a reset in risk appetite among managers holding meaningful pools of capital.

Derivatives: The Proof in the Premium

The clearest evidence of bullish positioning lives in the derivatives complex. According to CoinGlass, aggregate futures open interest has jumped to $7.26 billion, marking a 2.89% increase in just 24 hours. More telling is that this expansion arrived alongside rising prices—a textbook signal that new capital is flowing in to bet on continuation rather than capitulation.

The long-to-short ratio paints an even starker picture. It surged to 52.55% from 44.83% just days earlier, with funding rates now positive at 0.0224%. In plain terms: longs are willing to pay shorts for the privilege of maintaining exposure. That’s aggressive betting by any standard.

The liquidation tape reinforces this narrative. Over the past 24 hours, $9.64 million in short positions were forcibly closed versus only $5.20 million in long liquidations—a 1.85x ratio in favor of the bulls. When shorts get wiped out more heavily, it often fuels further upside as traders scramble to re-establish positions.

On-Chain Indicators Are Cooperating

Below the surface, Solana’s network is showing signs of stabilization and modest strength. Total Value Locked (TVL) has inched up nearly 2% to $8.984 billion according to DeFiLlama, while stablecoin liquidity expanded by roughly 3% to $15.586 billion over the past week. Neither figure screams explosive growth, but both point toward a patient rebuilding phase where the infrastructure for meaningful trading activity is quietly solidifying.

The Technical Inflection Point

Here’s where the rubber meets the road. Trading at $139.64, SOL has room to run into the $145 resistance zone—a level that’s held as a hard ceiling since mid-November. A decisive daily close above $145 would clear the path toward the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) sitting around $152, with the 200-day EMA at $172 as the next major waypoint.

Supporting this thesis, momentum indicators are in recovery mode. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 48—no longer in oversold territory—while the MACD is flattening out rather than turning down. These aren’t screaming “buy,” but they’re consistent with a market structure that’s quietly shifting from weakness to relative strength.

On the downside, the $126 level remains a key support, with April’s low around $95 functioning as a deeper floor should the narrative reverse.

The Case for Caution

None of this is a guarantee. The convergence of flows, derivatives positioning, and technical alignment is compelling, but Solana has had similar setups crumble before. Traders should size accordingly and respect the stops. That said, the current arrangement of factors—from institutions cautiously re-entering to derivatives traders taking on risk to on-chain liquidity stabilizing—paints a bullish near-term picture as SOL approaches the $145 test.