Gold prices are approaching the $52 mark... US Treasury yields decline fueling the rally

Amid the persistent weakness in U.S. Treasury yields, spot silver (XAG/USD) is approaching the $52 per ounce level. It has been rising for three consecutive trading days, and as signals of Fed monetary easing strengthen, asset purchase momentum is concentrating.

Fed Policy Shift Signals…Expected to Accelerate Easing Cycle

The possibility of monetary policy easing is attracting market attention. According to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch data, the probability of a 25bp rate cut in December has surged from 50.1% a week ago to 85.3% now. This indicates that the market is almost certain of additional rate cuts by the Fed.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams recently stated, “Current monetary policy is restrictive, but the tightening has eased,” hinting at the possibility of further short-term adjustments. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has declined about 3.4% week-over-week, indicating a bearish trend, which enhances the relative attractiveness of non-yielding assets like silver.

Political variables are also influencing the market. Kevin Hasset, a former White House economic advisor close to former President Trump, has been mentioned as a candidate for the next Fed Chair, raising the possibility of pressure to “end high-interest rate policies early.” This could serve as a catalyst to accelerate the mid- to long-term easing cycle.

Technical Indicators and Next Steps for Silver

On the daily chart, XAG/USD is currently trading around $51.94. It maintains a solid upward trend from the upper end of the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.15, indicating room for further gains before entering overbought territory.

Support and Resistance Levels:

• Primary Support: $50.40 (20-day EMA)
• Secondary Support: $44.47 (September 23 high)
• Upper Resistance: $54.50 (All-time high)

If the price closes above the 20-day moving average, the short-term trend is considered bullish. If RSI drops below 50, upward momentum may weaken, making the support near the 20-day EMA a key decision point.

Even in a correction phase, if support holds at $50.40, a “pullback and rebound” scenario remains valid. The upward trend is likely to continue until reaching the strong resistance at $54.50.

Conclusion: Signals of Fed easing and declining U.S. Treasury yields are driving silver prices higher, and the technical outlook remains robust. The key point to watch is the movement toward the $54.50 high after breaking through $52.